Diesel to the fire / Diesel al fuego [ENG/ESP]
I spent many hours reading articles these days, trying to figure out what is going on, combining several pieces that by themselves seem harmless, but combined create a dark picture of the events happening in Ecuador at the moment. Sounds like a conspiracy theory? I hope it's just that.
This is an observation and interpretation of facts and sources that I found while trying to understand what is going on in my chosen home country, Ecuador. It’s my perspective. I might be wrong. I might have misunderstood. I might’ve used the wrong words. If you have any comments or further sources, I’m happy to review and be proven wrong.
A few days ago, Azircon wrote a piece about the playbook established by Duterte in 2016. As I read through his article, I found concerning parallels to what is going on here in Ecuador. To sum up the article, soft authoritarianism is established by weakening democracy and concentrating power on an elite, while upholding the appearance of a democracy.
Let’s start with the three pillars, and how the playbook is implemented by Daniel Noboa in Ecuador. The basis for everything is the ongoing security crisis in parts of Ecuador, with drug gang rampaging on the coast and crime breaking all time highs over and over again. As that is a sad fact, the promise of bringing security is also the argument for all the changes that are being implemented at the moment.
First Pillar: Legislative
The first and most important part of being able cement his power is through declaring an ongoing state of emergency, granting the president more power and the ability to rule by decree (155 in 2025), without proper process through being checked by the parliament.
With a reform to the Law of Democracy in June 2025, a threshold was introduced. Parties with less than 5% of the votes will no longer be represented in Parliament. While that is not uncommon (Germany has that, too), it comes at a suspicious time, as it’s benefiting both the ruling party that supports the president, as well as the only big opposition. Both of those parties voted for the change.
Within the many decrees, there were some that made it easier for the state to declare “terrorist” everyone who dares to rise up against them. In the current strike, 14 people have already been charged with “terrorism” due to their involvements in the riots, bringing rioting civilians to the same level as those who chop up humans and leave heads on spikes. The message is clear – comply or else.
Second Pillar: Executive
To solidify the power of the president, the executive is key as it’s directly under his control. Here, too, the state of emergency is of importance, as the president can use the troops within the country to enforce his will. By introducing two laws regarding this pillar, key elements of power would be given to the armed forces and the intelligence service.
The Solidarity Law
This would legalize the state of emergency as unlimited by including it into a law, stating that Ecuador is in an internal armed conflict (Art. 6). That law than goes on to give the president the right to pardon everyone involved in that conflict.
That gives the military the right to become an active player within the country. Of course, if used against the drug gangs, that can be an advantage, but at the same time a disadvantage in civil matters as they’re heavily armed and trained not for civil confrontations, but for war. While the handling of gangs merits that, having the military interfere with civil matters carries a big risk, as long as they’re not trained for that – and they aren’t, as it visible in the current situation. But that doesn’t matter, as the president can always pardon them if the law is passed.
A similarity is the system of “false positives” in Colombia. Military trained for war engaging with civilians, causing deaths of innocents and posterior marking them as “terrorists” to justify the killing.
The Intelligence Law
Mainly, it reforms the intelligence agency, which had the status of a secretary before, and gives it the status of a ministry. The most important parts here are the ability to obtain private information without any warrant by any judge. Military, Police and Intelligence Service could legally force telecommunication companies and others to provide data about anyone, without being checked by another institution (usually the judicial branch).
The intelligence service would also be able infiltrate and act within civil organizations, for example inciting violence within peaceful demonstrations to give reason to repress the movements. This is common tactic within intelligence mechanisms, the most famous one is the start World War 2 – “Poland fired first!”
Again, here, too, the measurements can make sense to effectively combat the drug gangs. The power itself is not the problem; it’s the hands that wield it. Power in responsible hands that seek the common good can be the solution. But power in the hands of those that seek personal benefit can be very destructive. Especially when that power is left unchecked, which may be the intention here. And that brings us to the third branch.
Third Pillar: Judiciary
As the Constitutional Court of Ecuador declared the laws unconstitutional, instead of honoring the constitution, Noboa started a campaign against the Constitutional Court. In a march against it, they showed pictures of the judges, with their names, claiming that they're stealing the peace.
That gave Noboa more reason to strive for a new constitution, which could be easily done with only a absolute majority of 77 votes at the moment. Luckily, just today, Noboa did not get his will. And yes, that is all going on during a huge strike within the country.
Discrediting and/or influencing the Judiciary is another step that leads to a concentration of power within the presidency. The Judiciary is supposed to be the unbiased branch, the one that acts and rules always within the constitution, representing the balance of values of society, base for all laws and rules. If it's credibility is taken, it's easy to ignore the rulings, it becomes apparently legitimate to do so.
Additionally, if the trust in that institution is destroyed, it’s a lot easier to switch from a rational (legal) system of leadership to an emotional (apparently legitimate) one, which brings us to the role of the media.
The Media
The media, more than anything social media, plays an important role in every playbook these days. Not only to spread highly biased misinformation, but also by using distractions and emotional triggers to sway the perception in favor of those in power. These days, facts are not needed anymore to do damage. Instead of having a rational response to what we see, instead of contemplating and then creating an informed response, we instantly blurt out our emotional response, in short phrases, without context, mostly without syntax.
That makes it incredibly easy to manipulate. Anger, fear, hate – and the drooling hordes are riled up instantly.
In the current protest, is blamed on the protesters, but I urge everyone to NOT give into the emotional impulse when seeing news like “Police station burned down by violent protesters!”, but dig a little deeper to find the whole (uglier) story. Do not share content randomly without validating or at least taking a few minutes to think (not feel!) about it. Please do not rush neither to judgments or opinions.
Same goes for comments on this article. As stated in the beginning, I’m not claiming the truth. It’s the how the pieces fit together based on what I found. If you disagree, please explain with arguments and if possible, with sources.
How does the removal of Subsidies fit in?
After the strikes in 2019, everyone agreed that the subsidies are overall hurtful and not a targeted measure to help the poorest. Starting 2020, over a span of 17 months, the price of Gasoline was gradually adapted to the world market price, ending with a decree by Noboa himself in 2024 ending the subsidy complete with another 10% bump in price. That worked.
Why not doing the same with Diesel? Looking at the current situation, with all the information above, as well as taking into consideration the incredibly quick escalation provoked mainly by the military (either through orders or lack of civil conflict training), including the deployment of tear gas from helicopters within the first hours of protest, I can only speculate that Noboa wants this conflict.
He's measuring and demonstrating his power. Around 1000 extra police and military forces battled their way to Otavalo this morning, so the president could arrive there to show just that. Not even thinking about negotiations, but calling the civil unrest terrorism after purposefully escalating the conflict into violence. That is after declaring Latacunga the temporary seat of the Executive Branch. Latacunga is whithin Cotopaxi, a province where the CONAIE is incredibly strong and where their former leader and still influential person, Leonidas Iza, comes from.
The show of force of coming into the center of the strike through violence is also a sign of weakness. He has not been able to reduce crime, murder rates are going up, the violence from the drug wars is rising. So, as he was elected to be a strong leader, but is factually not, he creates a situation where he indeed can show force, can show strength – against civilians, not drug gangs. That also fits why he puts them as terrorists, so he can pretend to be strong and say: “Look at me, I can give security!” while he is really not.
It reeks of provocation. The question is why? One answer could be that after suppressing the civil movements and arresting their leaders for terrorism, he would have no more serious opposition in Ecuador. He could just continue to govern on without any disturbance and execute his plans. The other answer could be to distract from the vote on creating a new constitution (which fortunately failed).
Conclusion
So, after reviewing and reading and discussing and listening to hopefully all sides, it does seem like the bigger picture is quite ugly. I’m certain now that this protest is planned and wanted, that the violence is deliberately provoked and the escalation is not at its end, but advancing quicker than I thought. I never hoped so much to be wrong.
Sources:
https://www.primicias.ec/politica/bancada-adn-votos-asamblea-respaldo-constituyente-noboa-ecuador-105602/
https://gk.city/2025/08/29/ataques-daniel-noboa-corte-constitucional-explicados/
https://gk.city/2025/06/13/ley-inteligencia-ecuador-espionaje-seguridad-estado/
https://gk.city/2025/07/01/claves-entender-reforma-codigo-democracia-ecuador/
https://up2date.uni-bremen.de/en/article/soft-authoritarianism
https://www.teleamazonas.com/actualidad/noticias/politica/articulos-leyes-suspendidos-corte-constitucional-ecuador-100069/
https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/politica/adn-correismo-se-abstienen-votar-reforma-codigo-de-la-democracia/
Español (Traducido por Grok, ya me cansé...)
He pasado muchas horas leyendo artículos estos días, tratando de entender qué está pasando, combinando varias piezas que por sí solas parecen inofensivas, pero juntas crean un panorama oscuro de los eventos que ocurren en Ecuador en este momento. ¿Suena como una teoría de conspiración? Espero que solo sea eso.
Esta es una observación e interpretación de hechos y fuentes que encontré mientras intentaba entender qué está pasando en mi país adoptivo, Ecuador. Es mi perspectiva. Puedo estar equivocado. Puedo haber malinterpretado. Puedo haber usado las palabras incorrectas. Si tienes comentarios o fuentes adicionales, estoy feliz de revisarlos y aceptar que me demuestren que estoy equivocado.
Hace unos días, Azircon escribió un artículo sobre el manual establecido por Duterte en 2016. Mientras leía su artículo, encontré paralelismos preocupantes con lo que está ocurriendo aquí en Ecuador. Para resumir el artículo, el autoritarismo suave se establece debilitando la democracia y concentrando el poder en una élite, mientras se mantiene la apariencia de una democracia.
Comencemos con los tres pilares y cómo Daniel Noboa implementa este manual en Ecuador. La base de todo es la crisis de seguridad en curso en partes de Ecuador, con pandillas de narcotraficantes causando estragos en la costa y el crimen alcanzando máximos históricos continuamente. Como esto es un hecho triste, la promesa de brindar seguridad también es el argumento para todos los cambios que se están implementando en este momento.
Primer Pilar: Legislativo
La primera y más importante parte para consolidar el poder es declarando un estado de emergencia continuo, que otorga al presidente más poder y la capacidad de gobernar por decreto (155 en 2025), sin un proceso adecuado de revisión por parte del parlamento.
Con una reforma a la Ley de Democracia en junio de 2025, se introdujo un umbral. Los partidos con menos del 5% de los votos ya no estarán representados en el Parlamento. Aunque esto no es raro (Alemania también lo tiene), llega en un momento sospechoso, ya que beneficia tanto al partido gobernante que apoya al presidente como a la única gran oposición. Ambos partidos votaron a favor del cambio.
Entre sus decretos, hubo varios que facilitan al Estado declarar “terrorista” a cualquiera que se atreva a levantarse contra ellos. En las actuales huelgas, 14 personas ya han sido acusadas de “terrorismo” por su participación en los disturbios, equiparando a civiles alborotadores con aquellos que descuartizan personas y dejan cabezas en estacas. El mensaje es claro: obedece o atente a las consecuencias.
Segundo Pilar: Ejecutivo
Para fortalecer el poder del presidente, el ejecutivo es clave, ya que está directamente bajo su control. Aquí también el estado de emergencia es importante, ya que el presidente puede usar las tropas dentro del país de esta manera, imponiendo su voluntad. Al introducir dos leyes relacionadas con este poder, se otorgan elementos clave de poder a las fuerzas armadas y al servicio de inteligencia.
La Ley de Solidaridad
Esta legalizaría el estado de emergencia como ilimitado al incluirlo en una ley, declarando que Ecuador está en un conflicto armado interno (Art. 6). Esa ley luego otorga al presidente el derecho de indultar a todos los involucrados en ese conflicto.
Esto le da a los militares el derecho de convertirse en un actor activo dentro del país. Por supuesto, si se usa contra las pandillas de narcotraficantes, puede ser una ventaja, pero al mismo tiempo una desventaja para la población ya que los militares están fuertemente armados y entrenados no para enfrentamientos civiles, sino para la guerra. Aunque el manejo de pandillas lo justifique, que los militares interfieran en asuntos civiles conlleva un gran riesgo, siempre que no estén entrenados para ello, y no lo están, como se ve en la situación actual. Pero eso no importa, ya que el presidente siempre puede indultarlos si la ley se aprueba.
Una similitud es el sistema de “falsos positivos” en Colombia. Militares entrenados para la guerra interactúan con civiles, causando muertes de inocentes y luego marcándolos como “terroristas” para justificar los asesinatos.
La Ley de Inteligencia
Principalmente, reforma la agencia de inteligencia, que antes tenía el estatus de secretaría, y le otorga el estatus de ministerio. Las partes más importantes aquí son la capacidad de obtener información privada sin ninguna orden judicial. Militares, policía y el servicio de inteligencia podrían obligar legalmente a las compañías de telecomunicaciones y otras a proporcionar datos sobre cualquier persona, sin ser revisados por otra institución (generalmente el poder judicial).
El servicio de inteligencia también podría infiltrarse y actuar dentro de organizaciones civiles, por ejemplo, incitando violencia dentro de manifestaciones pacíficas para dar razones para reprimir los movimientos. Esta es una táctica común dentro de los mecanismos de inteligencia; el ejemplo más famoso es el inicio de la Segunda Guerra Mundial: “¡Polonia disparó primero!”
Nuevamente, estas medidas pueden tener sentido para combatir eficazmente a las pandillas de narcotraficantes. El poder en sí no es el problema; son las manos que lo ejercen. El poder en manos responsables que buscan el bien común puede ser la solución. Pero el poder en manos de quienes buscan beneficios personales puede ser muy destructivo. Especialmente cuando ese poder no tiene control, que parece ser la intención aquí. Y esto nos lleva al tercer pilar.
Pilar tres: Judicial
Cuando la Corte Constitucional de Ecuador declaró las leyes inconstitucionales, en lugar de respetar la constitución, Noboa inició una campaña contra la Corte Constitucional. En una marcha en contra de esta, mostraron fotos de los jueces con sus nombres, básicamente llamándolos enemigos del pueblo.
Eso fue aún más incentiva para Noboa para empezar el proceso hacia una nueva constitución, que podría lograrse fácilmente con solo una mayoría absoluta de 77 votos en este momento. Afortunadamente, justo hoy, Noboa no logró su cometido. Y sí, todo esto está ocurriendo durante una enorme huelga en el país.
Desacreditar y/o influir en el Poder Judicial es otro paso que lleva a una concentración de poder en la presidencia. El Poder Judicial debe ser el poder imparcial, el que actúa y falla siempre dentro de la constitución, representando el equilibrio de los valores de la sociedad, base de todas las leyes y normas. Si se destruye la credibilidad, es fácil ignorar los fallos, y se hace apparentemente legítimo no hacerles caso.
Además, si se destruye la confianza en esa institución, es mucho más fácil pasar de un sistema racional (legal) de liderazgo a uno emocional (aparentemente legítimo), lo que nos lleva a los medios.
Los Medios
Los medios, más que todo los redes sociales, tienen un rol importante en cada manual hoy en día. No solamenta para propagar información sesgada y desinformación, sino también por usar distracciones y desencadenantes emocionales para inclinar la percepción a favor de los gobernantes. Hoy en día, los hechos ya no son necesarios para hacer daño. En lugar de tener una respuesta racional a lo que vemos, en lugar de contemplar y luego crear una respuesta informada, soltamos instantáneamente nuestra respuesta emocional, en frases cortas, sin contexto, mayormente sin sintaxis.
Eso hace que sea increíblemente fácil de manipular. Ira, miedo, odio, y las hordas babeantes se alborotan de inmediato.
En la protesta actual, se culpa a los manifestantes, pero insto a todos a NO ceder al impulso emocional cuando vean noticias como “¡Estación de policía quemada por manifestantes violentos!”, sino que investiguen un poco más para encontrar la historia completa (la cuál es más fea). No compartan contenido al azar sin validarlo o al menos tomar unos minutos para pensar (¡no sentir!) al respecto. Por favor, no se apresuren ni a juzgar ni a opinar.
Lo mismo aplica a los comentarios sobre este artículo. Como dije al principio, no estoy reclamando la verdad. Es cómo encajan las piezas según lo que encontré. Si no estás de acuerdo, por favor explica con argumentos y, si es posible, con fuentes.
¿Cómo encaja la eliminación de subsidios?
Tras las huelgas de 2019, todos acordaron que los subsidios son en general perjudiciales y no son una medida dirigida para ayudar a los más pobres. A partir de 2020, durante un período de 17 meses, el precio de la gasolina se adaptó gradualmente al precio del mercado mundial, terminando con un decreto de Noboa en 2024 que eliminó el subsidio por completo con un aumento adicional del 10% en el precio. Eso funcionó.
¿Por qué no hacer lo mismo con el diésel? Mirando la situación actual, con toda la información anterior, así como considerando la escalada increíblemente rápida provocada principalmente por los militares (o por órdenes o por falta de entrenamniento en enfrentar civiles), incluyendo el desplegar gas lacrimógeno desde helicópteros en las primeras horas de la protesta, solo puedo especular que Noboa quiere este conflicto.
Está midiendo y demostrando su poder. Alrededor de 1000 efectivos adicionales de policía y militares se abrieron paso hasta Otavalo esta mañana, para que el presidente pudiera llegar allí y mostrar precisamente eso. Sin siquiera pensar en negociaciones, sino llamando las alborotos civiles terrorismo después de escalar deliberadamente el conflicto hacia la violencia. Esto después de declarar a Latacunga como la sede temporal del Poder Ejecutivo. Latacunga está en Cotopaxi, una provincia donde la CONAIE es increíblemente fuerte y de donde proviene su líder anterior y figura aún importante, Leonidas Iza.
La demostración de fuerza al entrar al centro de la huelga con violencia también es una señal de debilidad. No ha podido reducir el crimen, las tasas de asesinatos están aumentando, la violencia de las guerras contra el narcotráfico está creciendo. Entonces, como fue elegido para ser un líder fuerte, pero en realidad no lo es, crea una situación en la que efectivamente puede mostrar fuerza, mostrar poder, pero contra civiles, no contra las pandillas de narcotraficantes. Esto también explica por qué los etiqueta como terroristas, para poder fingir ser fuerte y decir: “¡Mírenme, yo puedo brindar seguridad!”, cuando en realidad no lo hace.
Huele a provocación. La pregunta es ¿por qué? Una respuesta podría ser que, tras reprimir los movimientos civiles y arrestar a sus líderes por terrorismo, no tendría más oposición seria en Ecuador. Podría gobernar sin disturbios y continuar ejecutando sus planes. La otra respuesta podría ser distraer del voto para crear una nueva constitución (que afortunadamente falló).
Conclusión
Entonces, después de revisar, leer, discutir y escuchar, a todas las partes (o eso espero), parece que el panorama general es bastante feo. Estoy seguro ahora de que esta protesta está planeada y deseada, que la violencia es provocada deliberadamente y que la escalada no ha terminado, sino que avanza más rápido de lo que pensé. Nunca esperé tanto estar equivocado.
Fuentes
https://www.primicias.ec/politica/bancada-adn-votos-asamblea-respaldo-constituyente-noboa-ecuador-105602/
https://gk.city/2025/08/29/ataques-daniel-noboa-corte-constitucional-explicados/
https://gk.city/2025/06/13/ley-inteligencia-ecuador-espionaje-seguridad-estado/
https://gk.city/2025/07/01/claves-entender-reforma-codigo-democracia-ecuador/
https://up2date.uni-bremen.de/en/article/soft-authoritarianism
https://www.teleamazonas.com/actualidad/noticias/politica/articulos-leyes-suspendidos-corte-constitucional-ecuador-100069/
https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/politica/adn-correismo-se-abstienen-votar-reforma-codigo-de-la-democracia/
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STOPIt is a bit scary what's going on there, I know pulling the subsidies off of diesel sent the prices up by a dollar or more and people really are unhappy. The problem with protesters is mob mentality and emotions can get out of hand quickly resulting in extreme violence. Then you have the drug gangs causing all sorts of problems. Ecuador is in a state of unrest, hopefully they can resolve it before it gets even uglier...
Yes, there's a lot going on, an instead of focusing on solving the real problems, the president decided to create a new problem, which he can (maybe) defeat and be the hero. Classic distraction, but really sad for the people.
Interesting article - somehow I had not read it until today.
I sort of thought the "terrorist" term was just a bit of rhetoric...I did not know people were actually being charged with that as a crime. Depending on exactly what the evidence is - and what the laws are - that could be interesting. There is no doubt in my mind that some of the things the "protesters" do during a Paro are intended to scare people. But calling people terrorists at a press conference is different than charging them with that crime in court. I assume the jail sentence would be a very long time if convicted.
You are for sure correct in your analysis that Noboa seeks much more power in his presidency than he currently has. And of course the outcome of today's election will tell a lot about that comes out. We shall soon see there.
I do not agree with you about exactly what Noboa's plan was. For sure he expected a Paro after removing the subsidy as he did. I don't think he wanted a real confrontation, but if the protesters never leave and he is not going to negotiate there isn't much else left that is possible.
In answer to the question - "Why did he do it so suddenly?" I asked the same question at a beer drinking session on a Sunday afternoon. The answer I got from a friend - which I think is very good - is that if he had done it 10 cents at a time he would have gotten 10 Paro's. I believe the Paro of 2022 (my first in person) resulted in a ten or fifteen cent change in the price of gas. This way he just got it all over in one go.
But I also think his goal was to completely eliminate the concept of Paro from the indigenous playbook. Certainly everything he did during the Paro - in terms of refusal to negotiate - and willingness in the end to use brute force makes sense if that was his goal. In this I happen to agree with him. Not much of anything good has happened to anybody as a result of executing a Paro.
Yet - it seems at least possible there will be another one soon. For example - an airbnb guest coming to our place in January - just asked us if he can cancel the reservation if a Paro happens after New Years. So this rumor is very much out there.
The rumors are always out there and will always be. That was after each paro.
Here's an article that shows how Noboa did it with the Gasoline, and why it worked so well - they actually calculated the amount of compensation that each Taxi etc. would get, to support the semi-public transport system.
https://gk.city/2024/06/12/eliminacion-subsidios-combustibles-explicada/
Here's a history of fuel subsidies:
https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/politica/eliminacion-subsidio-combustibles-gobiernos-presidentes-protestas/
And for his plans - I'm sure he didn't want death and many hurt, but he was absolutely willing to pay that price. The information war was what he won, and what interested him. I'm quite sure that each confrontation was very well planned, especially the ones where he got pictures. Rolling into Otavalo, saying he'll kick the indigenous out of the country, sending the first "humanitarian" convoy with lots of military (when Efraín was killed), doing the stunt with the second convoy with even more military and Italian embassy members to Ibarra - all that was well planned ahead, I'm very sure.
Only the last one, there you might be right - he thought they'd go home after a while. He left Imbabura for dead until it wasn't possible anymore, and then went all in once more.
But knowing? No way to know... I always hope for the best, and it would be awesome if you were right and he did not want that. But my gut tells me he just plays it as a game, he doesn't really have any feelings about it nor any connection to how non-rich people live in reality, not even taking about the poor and poorest.
Sorry - forgot to add this comment. You say this: "Starting 2020, over a span of 17 months, the price of Gasoline was gradually adapted to the world market price, ending with a decree by Noboa himself in 2024 ending the subsidy complete with another 10% bump in price. That worked."
This does not jive with my memory of my living here from August 2021 to present. There was a Paro of about 15 or 16 days I think in 2022 where the primary dispute was the price of gasoline. As part of the settlement the agreement was to raise it by either 10 cents or 15 cents (I cannot seem to find information I trust on this). That Paro was more nationwide than the one we just had - and cost the Ecuador economy can only be estimated.
If I'm not mistaken, it was still a rise in 2022. In the other comment I left a few links to review. I didn't really get it 100% either, what was first, and what second, and what in the middle - but I hope that those errors in details do not defeat the argument :-D The price hikes were gradually in the end, if I understand correctly.
It was a rise in 2022 - and it was not a peaceful one as we both know. Lasso wanted gas price raised to $2.55 and diesel at $1.90. After all the losses and nationwide protests the prices agreed to was $2.40 and $1.80. A lot of fighting nationwide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ecuadorian_protests) and incredible cost to Ecuador economy for 15 cents of gas and 10 cents of diesel.
Your article about the decree of 2024 is also an example of a gradual change that was able to work - but that was just for the last 10% bump.
The assertion of your post is that it is possible to make large changes to the subsidized price gradually and peacefully over time. I don't think the complete history from 2020 to present bears out that assertion. I do agree with you that Noboa would have been better off using the 2024 gradual approach you site...but it is also possible that financial obligations with the IMF just did not make that feasible. And - as we both suspect - Noboa may have also actually wanted this confrontation.
Either way - I think we both agree that fundamentally the subsidy is not good policy. I sincerely hope the indigenous leaders will refocus their efforts towards government implementing policies that more directly benefit them.
Finally - I know you have your deep suspicions on Noboa. And I do not defend him. But I also have very deep suspicions of the indigenous leadership. And it starts from the first time (in 2022) I saw these reports of Leonidas Iza confusing the price of gas in Europe (in Euro / liter) with the price of gas in dollar / gallon. Iza is an educated man who I do not believe could possibly make a error like this unintentionally.
Iza confuses units of gasoline prices
Here is what I found using an AI search to help:
Price Adjustments and Protests in 2022
Oct 2021 Extra/Ecopaís $2.55 (fixed) Diésel $1.90 (fixed)
President Lasso froze prices after previous incremental hikes, setting off initial protests. Price freeze implemented.
June 2022 All (See above)
Protests intensified, demanding a significant reduction in prices to $2.10 for gasoline and $1.50 for Diésel.
June 27, 2022 Extra/Ecopaís $2.45
President Lasso announced a 10-cent cut in response to the pressure of the protests.
June 27, 2022 Diésel $1.80
A 10-cent cut was also applied to Diésel.
June 30, 2022 Extra/Ecopaís $2.40
A final agreement with Indigenous leaders (CONAIE) led to an additional 5-cent reduction, settling the price at $2.40 per gallon.
But that's exactly the point. The paro was always invoked each time after significant price hikes, not gradual ones. In 2018, Moreno did a 40% hike for only gasoline - nothing happened. 2019, he tried to raise gasoline another 30%, and Diesel 130% - Paro.
Between 2020 and 2022, there were many hikes in price/liter, as you can see here:
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Ecuador/gasoline_prices/
Again, the strikes come after a rather quick surge in price, though over a period of time.
This time, it was the same - raising the diesel price (which is even more important than gasoline due to goods transport) by over 90% within a week? With all the history, that was premeditated to cause the trouble.
And no, the leadership of the protesters was as bad as it could be, in my view. Gladly jumping heads first into every trap set for them, without consideration. But that's the worrisome part, isn't it? The horrible state of "leadership", not only in Ecuador, but in the world.
Yep - I get it now. You are correct - that's a very nice graph!
The other point to keep in mind is that after both large increases the resulting Paros were not an effective response. In 2022 only fifteen cents on gas and ten cents on diesel were reclaimed. And in 2025 (where only the diesel was affected) the Paro was not able to reclaim a single penny.
Good riddance to the gas and diesel subsidies of Ecuador!
I really do hope that sometime before the end of the year Mr. Noboa can offer up some program that clearly helps the indigenous people. Perhaps some sort of farm equipment zero interest loan program, or farming irrigation system improvements or something like that.
The referendum questions yesterday went against Noboa - which I know you were happy to see and so was I. (but of course I still cannot vote). Perhaps this will inspire him to consider some measures like this.