RE: Diesel to the fire / Diesel al fuego [ENG/ESP]
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The rumors are always out there and will always be. That was after each paro.
Here's an article that shows how Noboa did it with the Gasoline, and why it worked so well - they actually calculated the amount of compensation that each Taxi etc. would get, to support the semi-public transport system.
https://gk.city/2024/06/12/eliminacion-subsidios-combustibles-explicada/
Here's a history of fuel subsidies:
And for his plans - I'm sure he didn't want death and many hurt, but he was absolutely willing to pay that price. The information war was what he won, and what interested him. I'm quite sure that each confrontation was very well planned, especially the ones where he got pictures. Rolling into Otavalo, saying he'll kick the indigenous out of the country, sending the first "humanitarian" convoy with lots of military (when Efraín was killed), doing the stunt with the second convoy with even more military and Italian embassy members to Ibarra - all that was well planned ahead, I'm very sure.
Only the last one, there you might be right - he thought they'd go home after a while. He left Imbabura for dead until it wasn't possible anymore, and then went all in once more.
But knowing? No way to know... I always hope for the best, and it would be awesome if you were right and he did not want that. But my gut tells me he just plays it as a game, he doesn't really have any feelings about it nor any connection to how non-rich people live in reality, not even taking about the poor and poorest.