China and the war in Ukraine: paradoxical ambitions and the risk of escalation

Recently, China’s role in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become increasingly evident in global politics. A recent statement by the commander of the Chechen special forces unit "Akhmat," Apti Alaudinov, regarding the imminent end of hostilities in the Kursk region and the entire special operation in Ukraine, caused an unexpected response among Chinese military analysts. This episode once again highlighted China’s hidden interest in the ongoing conflict, adding further tension and uncertainty to the situation.

Economic rise on western principles

Over the past few decades, China has experienced phenomenal economic growth, largely driven by the adoption of Western technologies and democratic governance principles. China’s economic model, based on a combination of market economy and strict state control, has enabled the country to become the world’s second-largest economy. However, with economic power comes growing ambitions from the Chinese leadership.

The paradox of Chinese policy: from democracy to dictatorship

Despite its economic prosperity, China remains an authoritarian state with strict control over political life. In recent years, particularly under Xi Jinping’s rule, there has been a trend toward tightening the regime and strengthening personal power. This policy is gradually affecting the internal economy: production rates are slowing, and the standard of living is beginning to decline. This paradox—economic growth based on democratic principles, but the desire to maintain a dictatorial approach—becomes increasingly evident and dangerous for the country’s future.

Support for Russia and China’s imperial ambitions

One manifestation of China’s imperial ambitions is its support for Russia in the war against Ukraine. Although China publicly maintains neutrality and calls for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, its covert sympathy for the Russian side has not gone unnoticed. China sees the weakening of the West and Russia as an opportunity to strengthen its influence, and the continuation of the conflict is beneficial to it from a long-term strategic perspective.

China’s military potential and possible consequences

China’s military, which is predominantly focused on land operations, plays a significant role in the country’s global ambitions. If one looks at the map of neighboring countries, it becomes clear that China is considering the possibility of expanding its influence not only through economic but also military means. In conditions where Russia may significantly weaken as a result of the protracted war with Ukraine, China may take radical steps, including military escalation on Russian territory. This could become possible under certain circumstances, especially if Beijing feels that Russia is losing control over its eastern territories.

Conclusion

China’s stance on the war in Ukraine raises increasing questions and concerns. A country that has grown on Western technologies and democratic principles strives to maintain authoritarian control and expand its influence on the global stage. Support for Russia in the war against Ukraine is just one aspect of this ambitious plan. However, the risks associated with such a policy could have far-reaching consequences not only for Ukraine and Russia but for the entire world order.