Portugal goes to the polls: a decisive election characterized by uncertainty

On the 18th of May, 2025, Portuguese citizens went to the polls to elect a new Parliament hardly one year after the last legislative elections. In a climate of political distrust, increased polarization and discredit towards institutions, these early elections stand as a clear mirror to instability which has lately dominated the Brazilian political scene.

But, after all, why did we have to vote again so soon? It all began with the fall of the Democratic Alliance (AD) government presided over by Luís Montenegro. The executive, by then already in the minority, had lost a vote of confidence in the Assembly of the Republic after weeks of controversy. The chief one involved allegations of members of the government maintaining links with consulting firms in a web of conflicts of interest that severely hurt the image of the prime minister. At pressure from the opposition and sectors of the right, the President of the Republic chose to dissolve Parliament and call for new elections.

📊 Polls vs. Reality: Making Predictions vs. Casting Votes
During the months leading to the election, it appeared that the right was gaining strength. AD had consistently emerged as the most voted force, with voting intentions fluctuating between 33% and 35%. The Socialist Party (PS) would appear in second place anywhere between 26% and 28%. The big unknown, of course, was auctioning the Chega, with some surveys predicting its performance at the 16% to 19% level, while others pointed to more modest numbers. IL and Livre, meanwhile, were approximately at 5-6% and 3-4%, respectively.

But, in the usual manner, with the final numbers came many surprises:

• AD (PPD/PSD.CDS-PP): 32.10% – less than expected, 89 deputies littered the halls
• PS: 23.38% – the plummeting figure with 58 deputies
• Chega: 22.56% – way above the most conservative forecasts, 58 deputies, as well
• IL: 5.53% – steady, guaranteeing 9 deputies alike
• Livre: 4.20% – slight increase, 6 deputies
• PCP-PEV: 3.03% – 3 deputies only
• Bloco de Esqueda: 2.00% – huge drop, 1 deputy left
• PAN: 1.36% – and also with 1 deputy

The first obvious conclusion is that elections reduced Chaga to judge and overwall PS and AD. Many voters have made up their mind in recent times, and it seems that a considerable part has decided to punish the “Centrist” parties, betting on a protest vote. Chega has consolidated himself as one of the three major political forces in the country, which equals PS in terms of PS, although with a slight percentage difference.

📉 Loss and Penal: Parties that lose
PS erosion, which is one of the most striking facts of these elections, 78 to 58 deputies. Pedro Nuno Santos was unable to regain the trust of the voters, at a time when the party did not seem to have a clear direction and was struggling to present a reliable option. The strategy of polarization with Chega made a limited impact: this unspecified did not diminish, nor was the younger generation galvanized.

On the left, the situation is even more worrying. The BE and PCP-PEVs continue to lose the ground. Fall for its worst results - only 1 deputy - and communists also reduced their historical weight much. This prolonged crisis of radical leftists raises serious questions about its political future, the ability of renewal and location for action in the rapidly polarly polar Parliament.

On the other hand, liberal initiative maintained a solid base, and Livre achieved slight growth, although without creating a decisive impact. These are an important parliamentary appearance aspects, but there is difficulty in changing the notoriousness in votes.

🧑 🎓 Isolated youth? Ability tells another story
Although the rate of restraint was the lowest in the last three decades (35.62%), the number hides a worrying structural phenomenon: traditional politics of young people. Several studies indicate that between 18 and 29, voters remain the age group with the lowest participation.

This demonization means not complete, uninterrupted. In contrast, many youths follow political issues on social media and express concern about the future of the country. However, they feel that parties do not represent them or do not understand their problems: the cost of housing, low wages, uncertain tasks and climate change population are central issues for this section of the population - rarely treated with seriousness that they are entitled to during campaigns.

There is also increasing weight of disintegration campaigns, fatigue with the political system and the belief that “voting does not change anything”. To combat this scene requires more than unclear promises: this requires concrete action, active hearing and renewal of employees.

✍ Conclusion: A decisive moment
The legislative elections of 2025 confirmed what many are already intuition: Portugal is changing politically, and this change brings risks and opportunities. Traditional parties have lost land, extreme increase and young people live in margins. The new parliament reflects this fragmented reality - and is a clear challenge for all heroes: either we learn to negotiate, or we will be trapped in a sterile cycle of crises and gradual elections.

Whatever is at stake is not just the government's creation. This is the health of our democracy, confidence in institutions and more stable, fair, and representative collective future.

Posted Using INLEO