A deep dive into the latest events in Venezuela
The Venezuelan Parliament finally approved last night, Thursday, an amnesty law that, while opposition groups and activists label as limited or flawed, undoubtedly represents a relevant step in the country's political development. The legislation was preceded by an opaque release process—initiated days after the seizure of Maduro—that did not imply the complete release of the beneficiaries, who in many cases remained subject to other precautionary measures such as house arrest.
One cannot lose sight of the conditions under which this measure emerges. Everything happening in Venezuela is a direct or indirect result of the de facto control that Washington exercises over the South American nation following the events of January 3rd. The correspondence between the White House's plan for the oil-rich country and the concrete steps Caracas takes is exact, even in terms of political communication. The narrative of the current Venezuelan leadership points towards a plain form of revisionism that, more or less openly, rejects what existed "before" in terms of political-economic management. That dynamic is manifested in this amnesty law and the previously approved reform of the hydrocarbons law.
According to acting President Delcy Rodríguez, they are "letting go of a little intolerance and opening new avenues for politics in Venezuela." "So that Venezuela strips itself of hate, of intolerance, that human rights prevail, that love, understanding, recognition prevail," she said during the law's promulgation act, while demanding "maximum speed" in its application and that "other cases" not contemplated in it be considered to "heal wounds, redirect democratic coexistence." Her brother, top legislator Jorge Rodríguez, said that the so-called Law against Hate, enacted when Delcy Rodríguez herself was president of the National Constituent Assembly, is "very useful," but that "there were situations of misuse." "That is true, and it must be corrected," he concluded, immediately revealing that a reform of that law is very likely; some factors of the more radical opposition expected to see it repealed within the context of the amnesty law.
There is a provision in the latter that implicitly references relevant figures from this more confrontational opposition faction, such as María Corina Machado herself, as it states that the legislation does not protect those "who are being prosecuted or may be prosecuted or convicted for promoting, instigating, soliciting, invoking, favoring, facilitating, financing, or participating in armed or forceful actions against" the country "by foreign states, corporations or individuals." Here, there is a permanent debate about whether sanctions are against the "regime," or if, ultimately, they end up sabotaging the lives of ordinary people, which seems to me to have been the case in Venezuela and also, even more so, in Cuba. Political disqualifications were not addressed in the text of the law.
As part of the immediate international reactions, the Spanish foreign minister announced that he will request the European Union to lift the sanctions against Rodríguez for her leadership in the law's approval process, which he considers "a strong signal that Venezuela is walking the right path." Consequently, the European bloc should send a signal that it is observing and supporting that trend. Veteran hardline opposition actor Antonio Ledezma harshly rejected that possibility in statements given to EFE. "The amnesty law can only be considered a step in the right direction. Now its implementation will have to follow so that political prisoners are truly freed," said the spokesperson for the German Foreign Ministry.
Economic notes
The global lender said yesterday it is gathering information about Venezuela to see the best way to resume some low-level technical contacts with Caracas, after about seven years of pause in the relationship. "In cases where we have government recognition issues, we are guided by the stance of the international community and of our members represented by a majority of IMF voting power," said its spokesperson Julie Kozack.
The conflict with Guyana
Another topic where there could be interesting turns now is the dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the area known as the Essequibo, very rich in strategic resources. At the beginning of this story, and appealing to the Monroe Doctrine itself, Venezuela went to Washington seeking support to defend its sovereignty over that territory, which, to a certain and limited extent, it obtained. In the political context of the last years, and until January 3rd, for obvious reasons, the U.S. position was very different, that is, one of frank support for Georgetown. But now we will have to see the recent demands of Venezuelan diplomacy to sit down "face to face" with Guyana to discuss the old dispute under the new perspective of relations between the White House and the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez.
India and the United States speak about Venezuelan oil
In line with the apparent prohibition on India importing Russian crude, the United States is working "actively" with that nation to favor the purchase of Venezuela´s. U.S. Envoy Sergio Gor said today in New Delhi that "[the U.S. Energy Department] is speaking to the Ministry of Energy [there in this sense], and so we're hoping to have some news of that very soon." "On the oil, there's an agreement... We have seen India diversify on their oil. There is a commitment. This is not about India. The United States doesn't want anyone buying Russian oil," Gor said.
State-owned and private companies have already ordered purchases of Venezuelan crude in recent weeks, per Reuters. However, the Indian Government is cautious in its public statements on the matter, as the doubt remains like a thick shadow over whether Venezuela, in the immediate or even medium-term future, can supply the enormous volume of crude that the country contracted from Russia, some 1.7 million barrels per day. "On Venezuela, we have said that if it is commercially viable, then we will explore buying oil. Our position remains the same," said this Friday the spokesperson for the Indian Foreign Ministry, Randhir Jaiswal. Yesterday, during a rally in Georgia, U.S. President Donald Trump assured that "extremely large vessels" are bound to Houston with 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil.
This is all for today's report.
