The Latin American Report # 532

The Trump administration is now targeting nearly 80,000 TPS holders of Honduran and Nicaraguan origin, in a new chapter of its aggressive push to show the world it will meet its self-imposed benchmark for mass deportations. These immigrants have spent some 25 years in the United States under TPS due to a devastating hurricane (Mitch) that struck Central America in 1998. I understand that the original rationale for TPS —i.e., two countries ravaged by Mitch— no longer exists. So, Donald Trump’s team is trying a move that, beyond sentiment, carries some objectivity. Of course, if they wanted to, they could choose to be more dynamic to avoid abruptly disrupting and damaging the lives of thousands of people who have likely built families and even thriving, productive businesses in the U.S. They could also consider the pervasive crisis that, from multiple perspectives, characterizes both Honduras and Nicaragua.

Yet, again, there is more coherence with this measure than with the withdrawal of TPS for Venezuelans—a move clumsily defended by Kristi Noem and Rubio’s Foggy Bottom itself. Noem asserts, regarding Honduras, that the country "has made significant progress recovering from the hurricane’s destruction and is now a popular tourism and real estate investment destination." Of course, this is an idyllic view that doesn’t square with the thousands of Hondurans fleeing a country plagued by corruption and organized crime—categories that, arguably, overlap. As for Nicaragua, DHS claims that "[it] has made significant progress recovering from the hurricane’s destruction with the help of the international community and is now a growing tourism, ecotourism, agriculture, and renewable energy leader." This perspective on the Central American nation is even more contradictory when contrasted with Washington’s tough rhetoric, particularly from this administration, which considers Nicaragua part of a malign troika in Latin America, alongside Cuba and Venezuela. I quote part of the Noem’s statement:

Since the original 1999 TPS designation, Nicaragua has seen improvements in its infrastructure with projects focusing on road construction, school infrastructure, and health access. Nicaragua has successfully completed projects on roads (U.S. $131.8 million), education (U.S. $69 million), and land administration (U.S. $50 million). Nicaragua has constructed key bridges to mitigate flooding, as well as developed over 200 km (approximately 124 miles) of roads. Decades-long projects have improved land administration and management, and further investment projects have helped with housing, food insecurity, and restoring the health sector. Nicaragua has become a worldwide tourist destination, while also promoting sustainability and revitalizing local communities. Technological innovation is empowering local farmers and fishers, making the agriculture industry more competitive and profitable.

In its 2024 investment climate statement for Nicaragua, the U.S. Department of State reported, “... Nicaragua continues to show stable macroeconomic fundamentals, including a record-high $5 billion in foreign reserves, a sustainable debt load, and a well-capitalized banking sector.” Additionally, Nicaragua has been regularly accepting the return of its nationals with final removal orders over the last five years.

Meanwhile, in LA...

Trump Turns Up the Pressure on the BRICS

The Trump administration has been closely monitoring developments in the South American giant. First, there was the 17th BRICS summit, which ended this Monday. Trump once again threatened the involved countries—now with an additional 10% tariff—if they adopt measures or collude with dynamics perceived as "anti-American." What’s the benchmark for this? It is not clear. "A line is being drawn. If policy decisions are made that are anti-American, then the tariff will be charged," a source familiar with White House discussions told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. For example, the bloc agreed yesterday to advance in the integration of national payment systems when pricing and invoicing their trade exchanges. Russia, in particular, stated that 90% of its trade with other BRICS members is conducted this way—a yet soft alternative to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar, and a non-negotiable red flag for Trump. South Africa was quick to declare that "it was not anti-American", while it remains to be seen how ongoing negotiations with countries like India—which has an ambivalent stance on international loyalties and alignments—will play out. Vietnam’s case is also worth scrutinizing.

But Trump also lashed out this Monday at the judicial proceedings involving his friend, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Undoubtedly, Trump’s statement is a brazen interference in the affairs of a sovereign nation, which—if the analysis is fair, balanced, and evidence-based—must hold accountable those who violate its constitutional order. That applies to Trump’s America, too.