The Latin American Report # 610

A brief personal update first

I am making a major effort to finish, this very week, a first draft—certainly primitive but complete—of my doctoral dissertation. Thus, that mission continues to keep me away from Hive, but two recent AP notes, one published just minutes ago, prompted me to make brief comments on two topics we’ve been discussing quite a bit lately: (1) the extraordinary support that the United States is providing to Argentina; and (2) U.S. operations in the Caribbean and potentially inside Venezuela itself.

Argentina

President Javier Milei was at the White House this past Tuesday, where he was received with great pomp by Trump, who then staged yet another one of those press availabilities he so thoroughly enjoys. From the very beginning of his political life, Milei calculated very well whom he wanted as allies—or rather, as protectors. During his campaign he stated on many occasions that his policy would be firmly aligned, without any breach whatsoever, with the United States and Israel. He fired his first foreign minister, Diana Mondino, because, according to him, she violated a sacred order of always voting with these countries at the United Nations and everywhere else when she supported Cuba’s annual resolution against U.S. sanctions. (In truth, aside from the U.S. and Israel, virtually the entire world votes in favor, with only a few abstentions.)

Back to the South American nation, at a time of great financial uncertainty—exacerbated by a harsh defeat of the ruling party in the Buenos Aires provincial legislative elections—Washington has emerged as a committed savior willing to do whatever it takes to give Javier Milei some oxygen. They approved a swap worth $20 billion and bought debt bonds, and now, according to AP, they are preparing to add another $20 billion on top of that, which joins the same amount previously allocated by the IMF. “We are working on a $20 billion facility that would complement our swap line, with private banks and sovereign funds that, I believe, would be more focused on the debt market,” said the U.S. Treasury Secretary.

But on Tuesday, Trump had made one of those offhand comments that move markets, inducing the opposite effect of what he—apparently—would have wanted to help Milei. “If he loses [in the national legislative elections at the end of the month], we are not going to be generous with Argentina,” said Trump. The market reacted with uncertainty, because, does this imply that a defeat for the ruling bloc is, as some suggest, the lifeline ends ipso facto? Apparently not, but it does offer yet another signal of Trump’s aggressive negotiation method, based on threats.

Venezuela

No one really knows where this situation with the U.S. military deployment in Caribbean waters near Venezuela is heading. In recent hours, the Department of War reported a new attack on a vessel that they claim belonged to a designated organization, in reference to the so-called Tren de Aragua. But more broadly, there is strong messaging from the White House and certain figures on Capitol Hill that Maduro heads the Cartel of the Suns, and so it is in the U.S. interest to topple Maduro, and then Cuba. The thing is, Trump confirmed that he signed a presidential finding authorizing the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela, though it is unclear whether that includes kinetic action against Maduro himself.

This is all for today’s report.