The Latin American Report # 688

It's been a few days since my last post, but I have been fully immersed in my doctoral studies process, with good news to share. Yesterday, Wednesday, I successfully completed the pre-defense exercise, a major step that greatly smooths the path toward obtaining the Doctor of Philosophy degree. Now I have three months to address the issues raised by the opponents and other members of the academic tribunal, with very clear guidelines to follow in this regard. So, although I will continue producing this report—a task I really enjoy—, I may not be able to do so with the usual frequency to avoid being overly pressed for time and to deliver a decent, well-fortified doctoral dissertation.

Ecuador/Colombia

Regarding Latin America, I've kept an eye on the hottest topics in recent days. To the inexhaustible Venezuelan issue, a trade dispute between Ecuador and Colombia, started by Carondelet, has now been added. Building on the Trump narrative, and perhaps covertly acting as Washington's proxy against Petro, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa imposed 30% tariffs on the coffee-producing nation, alleging a trade deficit valued at over 850 million dollars and also a lack of cooperation in securing the common border. The executive director of the Bogotá-based Colombian-Ecuadorian Chamber of Commerce told the AP that the real basis of the whole problem lies in security, not trade, although businesses take the hardest hit.

"Since yesterday, member companies have been contacting us in a state of high concern. [...] This situation directly impacts corporate development and sales projections; it may even threaten jobs," the official added. In response, the Colombian government also imposed 30% tariffs on 20 unspecified Ecuadorian products, totaling $250 million in value. Furthermore, Colombia's ministry of mines and energy indefinitely suspended electricity sales to Ecuador, with Minister Edwin Palma reminding that 9 out of every 10 MW exported by Colombia at the end of last year significantly helped ease Ecuador's then tense energy crisis. The Ecuadorian government has assured that this decision would not impact its energy stability.

Noboa has become a rather authoritarian president, reflected in his treatment of the Vice President of his first term, Verónica Abad, the disregard for the law during the last electoral campaign, and the approval of the violent extraction of former Vice President Jorge Glas from Mexican sovereign soil in Quito, among other signs. A comprehensive constitutional reform project from late last year was overwhelmingly rejected in his first major electoral rebuke. At the same time, his also controversial security policy has failed to pacify organized crime, which continues to strike hard in coastal provinces like Guayas and El Oro.

Venezuela/Cuba

The noise around Venezuela continues. Thus, the possibility of distinguishing between psychological warfare and sound information is becoming increasingly difficult. One of the latest is this article in The Guardian, claiming that the Rodríguez siblings assured Washington that "they would welcome Maduro’s departure", although "they did not agree to actively help the US to topple him". This Thursday, debate began on legislation promoted by the so-called acting president Delcy Rodríguez that would imply a rather sharp turn in the management of the oil sector, in apparent fulfillment of a US demand aimed at creating a more attractive regulatory framework for foreign oil companies, which could now, for example, take their disputes to international courts. Meanwhile, the trickle of releases of Venezuelan opponents continues, following confirmation of the release of Edmundo González's son-in-law—preceded by significant controversy—. González is the anodyne opposition leader who would have won the August 2024 presidential elections but ended up taking refuge in the Spanish embassy in Caracas and finally seeking asylum in Madrid.

In the Cuban case, an article in the WSJ claims that the United States is seeking a regime change for this 2026, maybe through reaching a deal with some officials. How much truth is there in all this? It seems to me quite, extremely difficult regarding Havana—id est: this is psywar so far through a kneeling press.

Regional news brief

• Chile is once again in mourning due to the voracious fires that cyclically affect the south-central zone of the country, which have claimed 21 lives since the past Saturday. "Amid the profound pain caused by the forest fires in the south-central zone of our country, I have decided to decree two days of national mourning for today, Thursday, January 22, and tomorrow, Friday, January 23, in order to honor the memory of the 21 compatriots who unfortunately lost their lives in this catastrophe that puts our country in mourning," said outgoing President Gabriel Boric.
  

• While an always compliant and obsequious Javier Milei was seen smiling after Trump's entry to the World Economic Forum session in Davos where the US president presented his controversial Gaza Peace Board proposal, Lula da Silva seems to decline his participation, in a quite interesting show of independence and not deference towards a Washington determined to burn the international order and bet on crude realism. "You cannot consider a UN reform made by one country," said an important advisor to Lula regarding the issue.
  

This is all for today’s report.