How Labor IS Contributing To THE RISE OF ONE NATION And Extremism
How Labor IS Contributing To THE RISE OF ONE NATION And Extremism
The Labor Party is one of Australia’s longest performing political parties which has predominantly built its identity, membership and campaigning around the union movement and working class industrial base consisting of manufacturing, trade workers and blue collar jobs across Melbourne’s west and outer suburbs. Yet recent polling suggests the party to be undergoing reform and a refocus more so in Victoria and this shift is ushering in the rise of One Nation and a complete alienation of it’s traditional core base. While, one must understand to make change you need to be in government and to do so, you need to win elections. But, at what cost? And is that cost at times, too high to pay?
Vic Labor is increasingly focusing on inner city, professional and tertiary educated voters and it is seeing union membership of and it’s former core base of traditional industrial work in sharp decline, undermining the party’s historical foundation.
[Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that in August 2024 only 13.1 % of all employees in Australia were trade union members](Trade union membership, August 2024 | Australian Bureau of Statistics) a long decline from roughly 40 % in 1992. With the highest union membership rates now appear in the “Professionals” category (20 %) Education & Training occupy the highest rates at 27% rather than among traditional industrial or manufacturing workers.
The data shows us that the industrial base that once dominated unions and Vic Labor’s core support is fading and the party’s target electorate is shifting to accommodate the transition.
Polling in Victoria further evidences this with a notable swing away from Labor in seats in the outer suburbs and among less tertiary educated voters. In March 2025 survey by DemosAU found a 52–48 two-party preferred lead for the Coalition over Labor, with Labor’s primary vote falling by 11.7 % in that wave. While that does not establish that the swing is entirely among blue collar or union member voters, it aligns with a narrative of disenchantment among parts of the working class.
Further, polling data from [RedBridge and Resolve]( RedBridge Group: 56-44 to Labor (open thread) - The Poll Bludger) show Labor’s primary vote in the mid-30s and increasing support for minor parties and independents this suggests weakening loyalty.
What this means is that Vic Labor seems to be recalibrating its message and election commitments with policies that appeal to inner city professionals [(such as “work from home” rights in Victoria 57% support vs 19% opposed)]( DemosAU/PremierNational Victoria State Voting Intention Poll - DemosAU) rather than core industrial issues. In doing so, the party risks alienating its traditional blue collar union base.
Members in unions may feel that their concerns such as job security in manufacturing, wage growth in heavy industry, workplace safety in building or trades are no longer front of mind. This can lead to disenfranchisement of union members feeling ignored, undervalued and open to exploring alternative political vehicles.
Radicalisation, extremism and the space for One Nation
When large swathes of the old blue collar base feel disconnected from their traditional political vehicle, it creates the perfect storm for radicalisation and alternative movements. Currently we know the party that has been picking up support among disaffected working class voters is One Nation. Nationally, for example, a recent This comes as the Coalition continues to lose support and all major parties (Including Labor) lose working class voters.
While specific Victoria based data linking union members to One Nation switching is thin, we can see in seats such as Melton and other outer suburbs that are predominantly blue-collar workers. Who once saw their interests championed by Vic Labor and the unions is shifting to parties and independents that strongly emphasise cultural security, anti-elite rhetoric, stronger borders and directly appeals to working class values.
If Vic Labor continues to champion inner city professionals as their target and labels their base as “extremists” or “One Nation voters” this further deepens the alienation. The narrative becomes: “If we are the future thinking professionals, you old school workers are irrelevant to us.” That kind of messaging risks creating an internal class fracture inside Labor’s movement (which may or may not already be happening.)
Impact on the union movement & party identity
If this strategic (political science) drift continues, the implications for the union movement are serious and more broadly beyond Victoria alone and with QLD already showing how those impacts manifest. Unions have historically relied on the political muscle of Labor parties in states like Victoria for collective bargaining power, industrial relations reforms, workplace protections and strong membership.
But if the party abandons or is perceived to abandon its core industrial constituency, unions may lose access to influence, resources and the narrative of being the engine of working class political power.
We are already seeing union membership stagnation or decline in private sector heavy industry while growing in professional sectors. That means the union movement’s base is changing which is causing the party’s base and electoral priorities to be changing too. However, this comes at a cost but whether the party acknowledges this or ignores it defines its future.
If Vic Labor fully pivots to a professional class focus, it may sever its institutional linkage with blue collar unions entirely.
How long might that take? If we assume the drift continues unchecked, one could reasonably estimate a decade (i.e. by 2035) for Vic Labor to have largely transformed into a party whose base is tertiary educated urban professionals and with minimal direct ties to industrial unions. We might see the union movement realign by either working with alternative parties, building its own independent political influence (it has happened in the past), or doubling down on member mobilisation and campaigning.
Consequences for federal Labor & the national picture
Victoria is pivotal for the Australian Labor Party at a federal level as it is known you cannot win government federally without strong results in Victoria. Several analyses warn that Victoria remains a “problem child” for Labor, especially when the party “red wall” in Melbourne’s outer suburbs cracks. If Vic Labor continues to alienate its blue collar base, these outer metro seats become more vulnerable, preference flows become riskier and the federal party may find its Victorian firewall weakened.
Furthermore, a narrative of class division within Labor (inner city professionals versus blue collar workers) have started to hurt Labor’s broader appeal. A party perceived as only serving professional interests may struggle in regional, industrial or socially conservative electorates. That opens the door for minor parties like One Nation and Teals to exploit the gap.
Strategy, Science or good old Divisional politics?
One of the more troubling elements is that the party’s current trajectory appears to rest on branding “One Nation voters” or “extremists” as its opponent rather than uniting the working class around its agenda. When one wing of the party paints other voters including the party’s own historic base as backward or extremist, the result is internal alienation. Workers may feel they are now the targets of the party’s new strategy rather than its core constituency.
This can lead to rumblings within unions: “Why is the party ignoring us?” “Why are we being bypassed in favour of inner city policy experiments?” Over time, this may precipitate disaffiliation, falling union political contributions, lower mobilisation for Labor (as we recently saw in some Labor Federal seats in these areas and a slow hollowing out of the traditional labor union party ties.
Vic Labor’s apparent shift toward chasing inner city professional, tertiary educated voters at the expense of its traditional blue collar/union base presents a significant strategic gamble. Based on ABS union-membership data (13.1 % of employees nationally were union members in August 2024) and Victoria specific polling (Labor’s primary vote down double digits in some waves). The party is gambling with a rapidly weakening industrial union foundation.
Unless the party consciously rebuilds or realigns its industrial base, we could reasonably expect within a decade (by ~2035) that Vic Labor will have largely moved on from its core mission and institutionally left its blue collar union roots behind.
The implications for the union movement are profound and will cause lost influence, marginalisation, the need to re-think political strategy. For federal Labor, Victoria’s working class fold is not to be taken for granted as the party’s national fortunes may hinge on whether it reconnects or continues to abandon its blue collar heartland.
Ultimately, a strategy built on division and branding parts of its base as irrelevant may win short term urban votes, but comes with broader more long term risks of disintegration of the labor union party coalition that is the core of Australian Laborism. If Vic Labor wishes to remain true to its working class roots and safeguard its union links, it must bridge the divide before those links are irrevocably broken.
Or it too risks becoming the current Liberal Party
Posted Using INLEO