The consequences of the US-Israeli war on Iran...
Major international research institutes and think tanks have published in-depth analyses regarding the outcomes of the war and the military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran—operations known as Epic Fury and Roaring Lion. These hostilities began on February 28, 2026, and concluded with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to halt the war in mid-June 2026.
The findings and assessments of these international institutes regarding the conflict can be summarized as follows:
1. Military and Strategic Outcomes
Failure to Topple the Regime (Regime Survival): Reports from the Brookings Institution and the IISS confirmed that the "decapitation" strategy—aimed at assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of military commanders on the first day—did not lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime as Washington had anticipated. Instead, the regime demonstrated resilience and cohesion, electing a new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) without immediate internal rifts or uprisings.
Degradation of Iran’s Conventional Capabilities: According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Iran’s military infrastructure, command structures, and conventional defense capabilities suffered massive damage. This has effectively prevented the country from emerging as a conventional power capable of projecting force within the region over the coming decade.
Challenging the "American Way of War" Model: Analyses by Brookings indicated that the war shattered the concept of "safe havens" for U.S. bases in the region. Iran utilized precision missiles and drones to strike over 200 targets—including U.S. bases and allied Gulf states—thereby demonstrating the vulnerability of forward-deployed U.S. forces. ### 2. Economic Consequences and Energy Security
Global Energy Crisis and Economic Shock: Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the reciprocal strikes on oil facilities triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history. According to the Clingendael Institute, Iran’s GDP contracted by more than 6% and inflation exceeded 80%, with direct economic damages estimated in the hundreds of billions.
Financial Cost to the United States: A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) revealed that the direct cost of military operations for U.S. taxpayers ran into the billions of dollars (estimates at certain stages ranged from $34 billion to $42 billion in direct combat costs, with far higher figures when including regional support), sparking a political battle in Congress over war funding.
3. Political Assessment and Final Agreement
- Iranian Negotiation Edge Despite Military Defeat: In a notable analysis by CSIS (titled Iran Won the Negotiation, Even Though It Lost the War), experts argue that the text of the framework agreement and the memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June 2026 was unbalanced. Iran secured most of its objectives upfront—such as the easing of the blockade and the opening of avenues for investment—in exchange for minimal gains for the United States and Israel, effectively leveraging the Trump administration's desire to exit the conflict and avoid a return to war. ---
Official English Sources with Links:
Brookings Institution: A comprehensive analysis series titled "Blowback," examining the war's repercussions and its impact on the American way of war and Asia's economic security.
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): Offers an assessment of the war's cost ("Epic Fury"), as well as evaluations of peace negotiations, the future of Saudi-US relations, and the reconstruction of the Iranian military.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS): In-depth analysis regarding the resilience of the Iranian regime, the devastating impact on Gulf states, and a comprehensive strategic assessment of the conflict.
- Clingendael Institute: A study on the psychological and political effects of the war on the Iranian elite, and the impact of the naval blockade and inflation on the domestic situation in Iran. * Clingendael - War, political psychology and the future of US-Iran relations
Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Detailed daily reports (Iran War Updates) tracking military operations and information warfare between the two sides during the conflict.