Odds and Ends — 9 April 2026

…Nixon made his threats through private channels. If he decided to back down from them, he would not lose face in front of the entire world. In contrast, Trump’s threats to erase a civilization could scarcely be more public. The pressure to make good on them at some point is correspondingly higher. It might intensify after his agreement to a conditional ceasefire with Iran on Taco Tuesday — sorry, April 7. This is why games of bluff are better played behind closed doors.
Another difference is that mid-20th century Vietnam was not central to the world economy. Early-21st century Iran unmistakably is.

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/2041931772301046095

https://twitter.com/ka_grieco/status/2041882668850163827

https://twitter.com/brhodes/status/2041680999537381857

Trump Is Already Moving On

Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.
So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway.
Trump to AFP last night: “This is a total and complete victory. 100 percent. No question about it.”

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2041915598830031336

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/2041869948125950104

https://twitter.com/Therealedblake/status/2041861037968838931

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/2041693537113149584

Trump Made a Deal That Gives Him Nothing He Wanted

…Trump said he went to war to ensure that Iran never acquired a nuclear bomb. The war ended—for now, at least—with a demonstration that Tehran possesses an arguably more powerful weapon of deterrence against future attacks, one that is cheaper to use, gives Iran enormous sway over the global economy, can bring in revenue, and can’t be negotiated away: the Strait of Hormuz.
More than 12,000 U.S. missiles, bombs, and drones hit Iranian targets over the past five weeks, destroying the country’s navy and much of its military infrastructure. Several of Iran’s leaders and some 1,500 of its citizens were killed, including more than 170 who died in a strike on a girls’ school that was the apparent result of errant targeting. But 12 hours after Trump threatened to destroy Iranian civilization and weeks after demanding Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender,’ the United States agreed to a two-week cease-fire…

https://twitter.com/itsJeffTiedrich/status/2041584701199003916

———— Vatican Navy Didn’t Offer Help? ————

JD Vance Reacts to Report US Official Issued Threat to Vatican Ambassador

“America has the military power to do whatever it wants in the world," Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby and his colleagues told the cardinal, per the FP. "The Catholic Church had better take its side.”

https://twitter.com/cmclymer/status/2042001009132626177

https://twitter.com/JoJoFromJerz/status/2042014112272601203