Trump Provokes a Global Nuclear Arms Race

While optimizing foreign affairs spending is a reasonable goal, it must not come at the expense of global security. Trump’s aggressive push for sweeping changes has eroded trust in the U.S. as a reliable political partner, forcing nations to seek security guarantees beyond traditional alliances with the U.S. and NATO.

Meanwhile, Russia’s war in Ukraine — erasing entire cities and killing tens of thousands — raises a troubling question: In an increasingly fragmented, neomedieval world, what can truly guarantee a nation’s security?

Putin’s nuclear blackmail has proven alarmingly effective, and the international community’s reluctance to confront him head-on has made one thing clear: today, the only true security guarantee is nuclear weapons.

The Kyiv Independent: U.S. President Donald Trump chats with Vladimir Putin during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in 2017

Trump’s campaign to withdraw the U.S. from its international commitments has intensified these concerns, prompting discussions about nuclear development in non-nuclear states like Japan, South Korea, and Poland:

Trump’s election cannot help but reinforce South Korean fears about the volatility of American politics... ...his behavior toward Europe demonstrates that he means to make radical changes - Cato Institute

A more serious question is whether Japan can even depend on the US nuclear umbrella with Trump as president - Nippon.com

Poland must look at acquiring nuclear weapons, says Donald Tusk - Financial Times

Reuters: Mariupol, Ukraine

The fate of Ukraine, which renounced its nuclear weapons, is especially revealing. In 1994, the country signed the Budapest Memorandum, pledging to hand over its inherited Soviet nuclear weapons to another post-Soviet country, Russia, in exchange for recognition of its territorial integrity and security reassurances:

A fragment of the Budapest Memorandum - the UN Treaty Collection

Even after Russia's 2014 attack on Ukraine and occupation of its regions, Ukrainians overwhelmingly voted for Volodymyr Zelensky, whose campaign slogan 'Just stop shooting' reflected a deep belief in diplomacy over force.

But as history has shown, stopping shooting doesn’t always bring peace. By 2025, it has become painfully clear: Ukraine’s decision to give up its nuclear arsenal was a critical mistake.

A fragment of the Budapest Memorandum - the UN Treaty Collection

Today, Ukraine is not in a position to talk about re-creating nuclear weapons. It must constantly prove its commitment to peace, despite being the victim of aggression.

However, looking at the long-term trajectory, the conclusion is unavoidable: If the West fails to provide full support for Ukraine and its integration into Europe, Ukraine may have no choice but to reestablish itself as a nuclear power.