RE: Has the US overestimated?
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Remember though in most elections, it is only ever a slight majority. That means a large minority voted the other way. It is important to note.
Also, looking into the day tariffs a bit:
Seems it isn't exactly tit for tat.
This aside, I think the bigger problem is the erratic nature of how it is being done. It erodes trust very quickly, which means that many countries will look to find alternatives, and they do exist.
None of this ends well for 99% of us.
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Never in any democratic vote has a majority won. Most of the population aren't voters. Add them to the voters that didn't win, and there's the majority of the people, every time.
This is the magic of democracy in which the majority rule is always, inevitably, a minority.