The Real Winner of the Attacks on Iran
The great beneficiary of the US attack on Iran is Russia, and the geopolitical arithmetic here is stark.
The Strait of Hormuz situation —one of the world's most critical chokepoints for global oil transport, through which roughly 20-30% of the world's seaborne oil passes daily— is resulting in the spike in oil prices. This provide Putin with an economic lifeline at precisely the moment he needs it most. Higher crude prices translate directly into larger government revenues for Moscow, which depends on energy exports for roughly 40% of federal budget income.
The flow of petrodollars from elevated oil sales, coupled with the partial lift of oil sanctions that Trump has signaled, gives Russia the necessary capital reserves to sustain and even accelerate its invasion of Ukraine without requiring difficult domestic economic choices or further currency devaluation. For context, Russia's economy had been under severe pressure from sanctions, with GDP growth stalled and foreign exchange reserves depleted by military spending, and energy revenues are its primary hard currency source—the lifeblood that funds both civilian needs and military operations. If the Ukrainians harbored any realistic hopes of forcing a negotiated peace agreement in the short to medium term—banking on economic attrition to weaken Moscow's position and force concessions at the negotiating table—the current situation has effectively dashed those prospects. The calculus has shifted decisively in Russia's favor, potentially extending Moscow's ability to wage war by years rather than months.
I believe Trump let himself get carried away by Israeli siren songs and made a fundamental strategic mistake by attacking Iran at this particular moment in the geopolitical cycle. no matter how powerful an empire is, it cannot sustain simultaneous pressure across multiple major theaters and emerge victorious. History from Rome to the Soviet Union demonstrates this repeatedly—overextension leads to collapse.
The US is already deeply engaged in the Middle East, managing Israel's operations and defending regional interests, and now faces escalating tensions with Iran, its proxies, and potentially wider regional conflict. Meanwhile, the broader implications for Ukraine, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific are being neglected—critical theaters where American interests face genuine long-term threats.
It remains to be seen what the full consequences will be, but at this moment Ukraine is unquestionably the big loser in this reshuffled geopolitical deck, facing a better-resourced adversary with renewed staying power. Beyond the immediate military calculus, the world is fragmenting further toward instability. Regional powers like India, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are hedging their bets and reducing alignment with Washington, traditional alliances in NATO and Asia are straining under the weight of unpredictable American policy, and the international order is becoming more fragmented and multipolar by necessity. The political capital and strategic momentum Trump obtained from his earlier success in Venezuela has now been diluted and partially squandered in the Iran situation, leaving him with less leverage across the board and fewer diplomatic tools to shape outcomes in theaters where American interests remain vital.
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