Assessing some breaking news on Cuba
SourceLate on Thursday night, Cuba announced that it will release 51 prisoners as a sovereign act and, at the same time, a sign of respect towards the Vatican. Historically, the latter is a key, seasoned, and well-known broker when it comes to advancing certain complex political and diplomatic endeavors here, on many occasions—such as in 2014 and now—related to the United States. The number of released individuals is not significant per se, considering the estimates of alleged political prisoners put forward by some civil society organizations, in many cases financed by the United States itself. Thus, it will be crucial to evaluate the specific list of beneficiaries, potentially improving the image of the Cuban government in the current context.
Following the recognition this same Friday, by the Cuban president, that there have indeed been negotiations with the Trump administration—which is pressuring probably more aggresively than any other in history for changes in the Cuban political system—, it is clear that the move to release prisoners is directly connected to the protracted bilateral conflict, and particularly to an ongoing attempt to achieve a certain détente. Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of the Army General and historical leader of the Cuban Revolution Raúl Castro, was present at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of Cuba where the Cuban president reported on the state of the conversations, and also at a press conference he offered very early this morning. Both cues would confirm, de facto, his active involvement in the conversations, despite his having no formal role in the State or the high political leadership—a problem that the top authorities must address immediately. Raúl's leadership in the process was directly recognized. He also has no formal role in the government, although he is a legislator.
Thus, for the moment, the narrative that major media such as USA Today, Axios, the Miami Herald, and Bloomberg have been promoting is being confirmed by the facts, pointing to a non-violent resolution of this crisis, which keeps Cuban society immersed in a state of almost total socioeconomic helplessness. The key point, then, is to continue discovering in real time the face of the agreement being reached by the parties, the measures adopted here and there. From Florida, the bet is on the extremes, that is: the overthrow of the political regime as a non-negotiable, immediate, and no-half-measures goal, even vetoing a Venezuelan-style move, which in truth is quite far from being applicable, in practice, to the Cuban case. The most expected changes on Cuba's side, I think, will be economic, aimed at expanding the participation of the private sector, and favoring foreign investment with a legal framework that is less bureaucratic and unburdened and, consequently, more attractive while at the same time safe for the investor. These are changes that Cuba has owed itself for a long time and that, unfortunately, it is undertaking amidst pressure.
The red line for revolutionary Cuba, in this dangerous curve of its trajectory, would be in the announcement of big, representative changes in the political system, particularly regarding concrete democratic development. For example, issues such as the place of the Communist Party in our politics, the electoral system, and other critical ones. Again, a strong or medium-level shake-up in this sense would indeed be in the interest and desire of political actors in Florida, the so-called "historical exile", and would constitute a harsh, unpalatable emotional blow for those who do not consent to or condone the slightest impairment to the principle of self-determination and independence of the country. We will be very attentive to this development as new elements emerge. Stay tuned.
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I am hearing now that Cuba's grid is presently inoperant. It is my sincere hope you and yours are managing the terrible deprivation dependence on centralized supply causes you.
My very sincere best wishes for your family's health and prosperity.
My friend. Times are quite tough, rough right now here, but I am standing and delivering for my family somehow, with a lot of effort, for sure. Thanks for your good vibes and for always being so supportive. Best regards from Havana.
I am happy, and they are lucky, that they have a father and husband that will do the work to stand and deliver.
One day, when we had been flooded for the second time in two years, Citibank was found to have just up and written a new mortgage on my home I had never even seen, much less agreed to, after purchasing our lender. The payments I was making on the mortgage I had agreed to and signed were being applied to this new note, and Citi had written me that I was falling behind on my payments, even though I had been making Herculean efforts to stay current - and was current on the mortgage that was legal, that I had signed - while spending $T's of dollars and unknown hours of work repairing the flood damage, again. I had consulted an attorney and he had told me I'd need to pay him the equivalent of ~3 mortgage payments a year, as well as pay Citi what their mortgage demanded, while the lawsuit was in progress, which he estimated would be 10, or even 15 years, because they would just keep throwing paper at the court in the hope that I would die, because then they would win. Eventually I just walked away, because I already could not afford the extra ~$500/month Citibank was demanding. I bought another house, a better house, with gated acreage out of town, where elk would graze some mornings, and I did not borrow from a commercial lender to buy it. I paid off that private money mortgage in three years so that no thieving bank could steal my house again.
But before all that came to pass, while we were still in the house Citi was stealing, I thought it was funny that stealing a sandwich was a crime, and police would violently kidnap you and keep you in a kennel like a dog with other hapless captives for it, but stealing a house was a civil matter that the victim had to prosecute themselves, and the thieves often got away with it because people like me didn't have the money to prosecute them. I was joking with my wife and kids about it, and they were laughing heartily, deep belly laughs. While deep inside I felt bleak, hopeless even, I didn't let on how I was facing a dilemma I couldn't solve, and all the work I had done, more than tripling the value of the home in two years with all the repairs that turned into improvements, was going to Citi and not my family. As I looked at their joyful faces, I realized that they didn't care about the money, that they didn't care that Citi was stealing years of my hard work, and neither did I. What we cared about was having a home, and laughing together as we worked in the hot sun. I realized too, that those were the good old days, that one day would look back on and remember as the good times. I was right.
Never let mere money, stress, or a few years of hard work, get in the way of loving your family. My kids may not even remember that moment, but I will never forget it.