The Conflict Between Russia and Azerbaijan Is Escalating: What’s Happening and Why

The resolution of the Karabakh conflict drastically reduced Azerbaijan’s political dependence on Russia: Azerbaijan now fully controls its territory and there has been no Russian military presence in Azerbaijan since June 2024.

Despite that, Moscow continued to treat the country as a vassale partner. This attitude became painfully evident in December 2024, when a Russian air defense system severely damaged an Azerbaijani passenger plane, leading to a crash that killed 38 people. Putin issued an apology, but no one was held accountable, and no compensation was paid.

The downward spiral in relations took another turn when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declined to attend the 2025 Victory Day Parade in Moscow - an event deeply symbolic, if not sacred, to Putin’s regime.

"On June 27, in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg, brutal actions were carried out against Azerbaijanis, including torture, killings, intimidation, and persecution of members of the diaspora" - Report.Az

It might be this decision - likely interpreted as Azerbaijan’s final refusal to recognize Russia as a hegemon - was the trigger for a harsh crackdown on ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg on June 27, 2025. Russian officials, however, claimed the operation was part of an investigation into old criminal cases.

The special forces detained almost 50 Azerbaijanis; two were killed, and several others were hospitalized after being released from police custody.

The incident served as a catalyst for Azerbaijan’s informational and diplomatic offensive against Russia.

The following day, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry lodged a formal protest and demanded a full investigation. Azerbaijani officials claimed that such treatment of their citizens was systematic in Russia and accused Russian authorities of ethnically motivated killings.

Azerbaijan canceled a planned visit by its parliamentarians to Moscow and called off the visit of Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister to Baku, stating that under the current circumstances, it was not willing to host Russian officials.

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Culture canceled all concerts and exhibitions involving Russian citizens in the country, whether organized by the Russian government or private entities.

On June 30, Azerbaijani security forces raided the Baku office of the Russian state news agency Sputnik, conducting searches and arresting the agency’s director and deputy director - both FSB agents, according to some Azerbaijani analysts. In response, the Azerbaijani ambassador in Moscow was summoned to provide explanations for what Russia described as unfriendly actions by Baku. "We worry about our journalists," said a representative of Russian Foreign Ministry.

On July 1, a group of Russian citizens was detained in Azerbaijan on drug trafficking charges, a case that received broad media coverage.

On July 2, Azerbaijan's Parliament Commission on Combating Foreign Interference and Hybrid Threats accused Russia of the information campaign against Azerbaijan:

During our investigation, we documented large-scale propaganda promoting aggressive behavior and inhumane treatment toward our compatriots.

Azerbaijani media have sharply shifted their tone toward Moscow’s foreign policy. While official outlets had previously avoided criticizing the Kremlin, they are now filled with outraged commentary directed at Russia. Here’s what the country’s main state news agency writes on July 1:

According to the latest statistics, the Russian army killed over 1,000 local residents here [in Bucha, Ukraine]. The massacre in Bucha is seen by much of the world as the most powerful symbol of Russian atrocities. Harrowing footage from the Russian occupation of the city in March 2022, along with eyewitness testimonies, reveals the full brutality of Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine.

State-run media have begun comparing Putin to Hitler - something that would be impossible in authoritarian Azerbaijan without a green light from the country’s leadership.

Azerbaijan, having freed itself from dependence on Russia, is no longer afraid to demand respect for its country and its compatriots.

But Russia’s growing weakness is part of the story too. Mired in the endless war and crippled by severe sanctions, unable to help its allies (Syria, Armenia, Iran), Russia lost its image of all-mightly power.

A major factor is also the fact that much of the ex-Soviet population empathizes with Ukrainians. The years of senseless brutal war against Ukraine have fostered deep resentment toward Russia among millions of people who once lived under the same Soviet roof. As Azerbaijani news outlet Report.Az writes on June 29:

If Russia today shows such cruelty even toward the fraternal Slavic nation of Ukraine - destroying cities and villages, committing genocide in Bucha, and using advanced destructive weapons - then it should come as no surprise that it would treat other nations even more harshly.

There are also more concrete geopolitical factors.

As the active phase of the Middle East conflict winds down, the West’s attention may shift back to Ukraine. And Trump, once seen as a man of empty threats, appears in a different light after the operation in Iran. Many in Moscow fear that Trump's friendliness was merely part of a strategy to appease Russia while the Americans and Israelis prepared for war with Iran.

The fact that Europe has awakened from its years-long geopolitical slumber has not gone unnoticed by post-Soviet countries too.

Russia’s inability to assist Iran has laid bare the limits of its power. Its human resources are exhausted, leaving mass mobilization as the only option - one that would come at a devastating cost to the economy.

Soviet-era weapon stockpiles are long gone, and even top Russian officials have publicly acknowledged the decline of Russia's economy at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum.

In this weakened state, Russia can no longer command the loyalty it once did. Russia has no power to curb Azerbaijan, and that might open the door for others to break free from the web of fear Putin once spun over the post-Soviet space.

Meanwhile, arrests of Azerbaijanis continue in Russia, including that of a Lukoil top manager and the head of Azerbaijani disapora in Ekaterinburg. According to analyst Ramis Yunus, if Russia intends to pressure Azerbaijan this way, it won’t succeed: "Moscow no longer has any real leverages, especially given Azerbaijan’s alliance with Turkey and nuclear-armed Pakistan".

Baku is set to host high-level visits this week, with the Prime Minister of Pakistan arriving on July 3, followed by the President of Turkey on July 4. Observers will be watching closely for the statements that emerge from the meetings.