The Latin American Report # 537

The former Bolivian president, Evo Morales, remains entrenched in the town of Lauca Ñ, in the Tropic of Cochabamba, where he effectively acts as an ad hoc president. Morales’s bunker has the pompous and quasi-official name “General Staff of the People,” and is guarded by about 2,000 loyalists armed with ancestral shields and spears, per EFE. The organization of the so-called “Vigilia,” which seeks to prevent any authority from carrying out an arrest warrant hanging over Morales—accused of a very sensitive crime—is as indigenous as it is disciplined and efficient, arranged in well-compartmentalized layers or levels of security.

The veteran coca grower union leader, apparently now definitively out of the electoral equation, is demanding the authorities allow him to run again, as he claims, following the Constitution. In truth, there are strong signs that years ago he forced a court ruling which stated that running for re-election was a "human right", overriding the constitutional provision that a sitting president can only be re-elected a single time and in the following term. So, he has already served three times, taking advantage of the context of the 2009 constitution’s proclamation. According to what he told EFE—and what both Evo and the rival faction of the broken MAS party say is increasingly confusing and flimsy for lack of evidence—"[he has] information that [the government], with 20 international experts, is working on [electoral] fraud." "They are telling me, the same people, the same foreigners are informing us," he added from the radio station that serves him as a propaganda outlet.

_Source

His foundational party did not just split into two but into three rival factions, and of those three, Morales’s bloc, which undoubtedly has a solid popular base, will be absent. In this sense, he claims that a good part of the 27% of voters who identify as undecided lean toward him. Samuel Doria Medina, a businessman and a former minister in the 90s, is so far the favorite for the fast-approaching elections. If his victory materializes, it would confirm the pattern seen in countries like Ecuador, where people give their vote to businesspeople. Doria identifies as a centrist, responding to the apparent contradiction of his party belonging to the Socialist International. For that, he says that currently his ideological line is closer to Spain’s Popular Party. Owner of the Bolivian franchise of Burger King and an iconic hotel, he proposes a plan quite close to what Javier Milei implements in Argentina, though without resorting to all his incendiary rhetoric.

_{Samuel Doria Medina campaigning with university students (source).}

The tariffs saga

Trump announced this Saturday that on August 1, new tariffs of 30% would come into effect for products entering the United States from Mexican territory. The ups and downs and whims of the U.S. president keep markets in constant flux, and, naturally and more importantly, the targeted nations as well. Trump now claims that although he has received support from Mexico City to contain the incoming flow of drugs and migrants to the United States, it has not been enough. This week, he also threatened to impose tariffs of 50% on Brazil, starting August 1.

Of course, from now until then, as has happened so far, anything can happen, and it is more likely that there will be a de-escalation than not—although I see it as harder in Brazil’s case given the demands Trump made, which, in principle, are beyond President Lula’s reach from a legal perspective. Mexico, in fact, downplayed the noise about Saturday’s announcement, claiming they had been warned since Friday by U.S. authorities themselves, and that they are already negotiating to prevent the tariffs from taking effect.

The Trump's letter to the Mexican president 👇 (source for the image in the left; source for the one in the right).

Finally, for today, this 👇 is a good analysis on Trump's immigration endeavors.