Tariff Chess with a Chimera: The war we can't win

I’ll start by saying this: I want to be wrong.

I’d love to believe this tariff chicken game could work out somehow, but I struggle to convince myself of that. To me, if this becomes an endurance test, there’s no way China doesn’t come out on top. We might think we’re playing the same game, but their deck of cards is completely different from ours.

It’s well known that China is, for all intents and purposes, a unique powerhouse. They’ve managed to blend communism and capitalism into some kind of unstoppable chimera. I’m not sure it can be described any other way.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has stayed in power this long for one simple reason: political pluralism is illegal. Their tactics to maintain control are well documented and undeniably Machiavellian. The end always justifies the means when it comes to ruling that ancient land.

With an iron fist, they’ve accomplished things that democratic countries would find impossible. The state outweighs the individual, and for the sake of China’s greatness, the individual is often abused and forgotten.

What does this have to do with the tariff war, you ask? Everything.

When a government isn’t accountable to its people, the amount of pain it can endure is practically limitless. The CCP doesn’t worry about the next election or being unpopular. Dissent is reserved for those who are either brave, stupid, or both.

I see American pundits cheering for this tariff war. Their confidence hinges on the fact that America is China’s biggest market. But they miss something critical: even though that’s true, China has massive trade with other countries, and all those deals combined will keep their economy afloat just fine.

Add to that the perception that America has turned its back on allies. The idea that they’d join us in boycotting China? That’s not even on the menu.

I’m left with one question, and maybe the only one that matters.

Is this just plain ineptitude, or is there a master plan I’m failing to see?

MenO