Tariffs - Two horses one saddle
I keep on seeing prominent figures repeating the idea that tariffs are good, and that they work somehow. I'm not trying to be closed minded, so I'm digging deep into their worldview, but all I see is inconsistency.
Pomp, you too?
I was surprised to see Pomp "happy" there's a new tax levied on the American consumer. He's so sure of his position, he's made long videos explaining to us, the little guys, how this whole thing is a 4D chess move, and how we just need to ride the wave.
In an attempt to see if he's seen refutations to his surprising position, I reached across the aisle, so to speak, to see if he's familiar with them.
Thomas Sowell in his book Basic Economics, explains that trade deficits or surpluses don’t inherently signal economic health—Germany and France had surpluses with high unemployment, while the U.S. thrived as a debtor nation during its industrial rise. Sowell sees tariffs as a simplistic fix that ignores this complexity, often pushed by politicians for short-term appeal rather than long-term gain.
Maybe these ideas are too complex to discuss in a twitter threat, I can accept that. But, it's not like they are hard to find or not debated hundreds of times in the square.
But, for the sake of expediency or efficiency, allow me to present the two horses the Trump administration is betting on at the moment, and let's take it from there.
The big ideas
The current administration is telling us these are the goals behind the tariffs:
- Through the taxation of the foreign nation, we will have new found wealth. We will, to quote trump, "Not know what to do with the money". The idea being that the revenue collected through the ERS (External Revenue Service), will more than compensate for any budgetary concerns we may have.
- These tariffs will also bring back jobs. Companies will see how it's not worth manufacturing abroad and thus move their operations to American soil.
On it's face, more so if these ideas are adorned with charisma and demagoguery, this sounds beautiful, desired even. But let's peel back the layers, one, to be exact.
Let's ask "the question":
If the companies move their operations to the US, as they say, then; Where are the tariffs coming from?
Please, someone who does not wear a red hat unconditionally, explain it to me. If these industries move all their operations to America, then from what Industries are we going to collect all the money from?
It's a fair question, Is it not?
We got two horses, one saddle, and yet people are saying we just don't get it.
MenO
Either we rake in money from tariffs or we bring jobs back, but both at the same time is exactly like someone trying to eat their cake and sell it too
precisely
I was trying to figure out what the argument behind all these tariffs. As with trump it’s just such broad strokes. I didnt go so deep. But found this idea that globalists have taken over the narrative, perhaps the most compelling. I do not feel confident yet to say what my opinion is… but here is a blurb i found at the very least worth a ponder.
-Reevaluating Free Trade Ideology – Over the past 30-40 years, globalization and free trade agreements (like NAFTA and the WTO framework) became dominant, with the assumption that lowering trade barriers would benefit all nations. However, critics argue this led to job losses in developed countries and a race to the bottom in wages and environmental standards. Trump’s tariffs challenged this narrative, suggesting that protectionist measures could be a legitimate tool for recovering the US economy, manufacturing, and return of jobs.-
Basically the way im understanding it is that while making these tariffs will result in immeadiate turmoil, the long term will create more stability through self sustaining ones country. That actually this was how the world was run for centuries, where countries made their decisions on tariffs based on their countries self interest and that this created a healthier world. That globalism has created a race to the bottom effect.
All of us and you and me are no exception, tend to believe that "things were better" back in the day. It's a mental mechanism of sorts, a post mortem analysis that allows us to feel important emotions: Gratitude, nostalgia, love even. Emotions we can attach to our current idea of happiness. "In retrospect, I'm a happy man".
This mental mechanism has evolved for a reason. Some say, and I think they are correct, that since life never becomes easier, per say, we need a way to soften past experiences, to heal, if you will, as to be able to build confidence in who we are today, who we need to be.
In other words, there's a story we tell ourselves, that we need to tell ourselves, to be deal with our circumstances today.
Granted this seems like a detour, I do think keeping this in mind is relevant to understand the fear we have regarding Globalism.
We've effectively created a myth:
"When nations were completely isolated, life was better"
None of the numbers available to us show this to be the case. Mortality rates have dropped drastically (life expectancy). Poverty has been reduced greatly, etc. Again, that's not an opinion, these are numbers anyone can verify.
Now this doesn't mean that globalism has no flaws. As with all systematic changes it comes at a cost. But, I guess if we don't zoom out, we can always find reasons as to why something is bad, because nothing is entirely good or bad.
Take your phone, for example. It has parts sourced from 20 countries in it. Without global supply chains it would be an impossibility for the tech to exist.
I feel almost obligated to share this video with you. It's entertaining, apolitical, but also works like cold water hitting the face.
But here's another point, and one that if I don't mention, I'm sure you will find yourself latching on to it.
Why are politicians and truth tellers always going on about Globalists?
For one, let's not forget they are showmen. You on the stage take on a persona to entertain the audience, and so do they. Instead of songs, their show consists of fear. Effectively "Globalists" are for them, the boogeymen, the elites behind the curtains destroying the little guy, us.
The show works, it triggers what I first described almost instantly. It latches on to our de facto re-writing of the past, and it sells us the idea that the system can be fixed, but only if we kill these ghosts. This is being said, while this same people enjoy all the fruits of global supply chains. They are passengers in the car, warning about Internal combustion engines destroying the air quality. (another cost/benefit conversation)
Again, I'm not saying our global economy is perfect, because nothing is. I'm saying that the nostalgia we feel, the temptation for isolationism and what have you, is not predicated on solid data, but more in emotion. And, even if the rhetoric of the politicians and talking heads sounds pretty, the pandora box was opened long ago.
We would be hard pressed to find people who want to live like the Amish do. Even the Amish found loopholes, to tap into some "globalism".
Your points are valid. But i want to be clear. I have no horse for this saddle. Separate of your post, the other day i was thinking of how vague this trumps tariffs thing was to me. So i asked chat gpt something like…what are the ideas behind Trumps tariffs.
I read through what chat gpt spit out. The part that seemed most worth considering was this idea that the globalization narrative was new relatively speaking. I was never personally was thinking about this from a nostalgia point of view that things used to be better. The bit that i found compelling was that nations acting in their own self interest was healthier.
I’m probably attracted to that part for my own selfish reasons. As in the last years ive adopted an attitude of self first. I have spent a lot of my life in appeasement of others…something in me/my upbringing has always held a host energy and led to me putting my own well being lower. In my 40’s this started to change, and i have leaned into being more selfish in terms of personal health and life choices. The results have showed me im actually able to be more of service to others when i behave selfishly. And im not talking selfish in the rub my hands together ‘wha ha ha’ mr burns kind of way.
So i just want to clarify what part of my light perusal of the concepts behind trumps tariff talk that i thought was worth a ponder. As my brain wasn’t in the good ol’ days side of it. But more perhaps in the Ann Rand style concepts around the self regulating factors of inherent selfishness.
I’m currently unattached and gestating. But i often feel there is truth in the grey between. That perhaps the correct paths lie somewhere between the extremes of globalist and protectionism agendas.
I'm really loving this Gary Stevenson guy, have diving into his videos. I find him very inspiring. Cheers for that.
I just watched this video...and at minute 15 he talks for a few minutes about tarrifs in a way that seems sensible.
tariffs are working? lmfao
