Saturday & Chill - At The Races - Advice for Gamblers - Only Fools & Horses

Well, as it was, on the last of my rope as they say, I had to contemplate how I was going to pay for a surprise tax bill with the money I don’t have, well, solution was, had to begin the process of selling more assets, which trigger more tax events, which trigger more taxes to be paid, dreadful business I tell but, I have another financial year to sort that out, so its all fine.

Now rather bothered by all of that, I decided to enjoy a nice Saturday at the races, with all the money I don’t have, or did, because I apparently won at Ascot on a mystery trifecta and forgot about it! and had $70 to play with? How funs that.

Now while in the past, I used to hang out with cam girls while I played, on this occasion, I decided to hang out with AI , so we could do some maths experiments and see, just how, with all these strategies everyone talks about, can you actually win, I had, been contemplating this for years actually, it’s the basis of French statistics, if you, scroll back on the old place, well, I was banging on about these ideas I got from St Germaine… long story, don’t ask.

Anyway, broad strokes, you’re going to lose, gamble responsibly, its not a financial option to get you out of trouble, so don’t waste the last of your money hoping to change your cards, the odds suggest, your going to lose, and trust me, AI & I just spent an entire day of it doing maths equations and talking about science, was very fun I must say, lovely day at the races, bit of field research for an article.

Anyway, on with the Maths Experiment.

Key Points for Consideration

• The House Wants You to Lose
• The House has everything rigged, for you to lose
• Occasionally, only Occasionally, the house makes mistakes
• If you are successful, long term, your account will be “Gubbed”
• Every reward, function, free this, invitational, is only offered to losers, they love losers, they make them money, winners do not.
• If, you do, have a “winning strategy” of any kind, it’s an unspoken rule, you need to lose on occasion, deliberately, to give money back to the house, otherwise, they are going to kick you out,
• While I like sports betting, we must never forget, it is, about, the sport, the sport came first, the gambling came second.
• As you read this example, let me tell you, if you, put on 1,600 Manual Bets, at a bookmaker, your going to get Gubbed, and your going to have to take them to court to pay you, you will win, but it wont be easy, in theory, it could be done, as a syndicate, but I’m not explaining that just now, all I will say, is, Barney (if you know, you know) you will however, only be able to pull it off once.

This Maths Experiment, Brought to you by the fine folks racing today at Newcastle in England, bless you all, lets have a good race, a bit of a flutter, and help some problem gamblers really understand the odds, what I am pointing out here, is that even advanced AI that can calculate, millions of times faster than you, even it, couldn’t pick a winner, so how are you going to?

I love sport, and e-sports, and gosh knows us Aussies love a drink and a flutter, we should not forget that part of our culture, but we have to keep it in check, and trust me boys & girls, if I had all the money, that I metaphorically pissed up against a wall, thinking I would win back, I would not be in the financial situation I am these days, yeah I had some big wins, then I had some big losses, and every gambler, only ever tells you about their wins, but, I’m not afraid to admit it, anyway, for educational purposes, and to help problem gamblers (I am not one) here, are some conversations me and some of my AI friends had today.

Kashmir_Z said:
Tell me, is it possible for you to calculate, the permutations of all combinations of what I have already provided to you, so that if they were all selected, we would invariably win? I somewhat did this manually in the past, but it was too complicated for my brain, that might not be the case for yours, is it within your scope?

ChatGPT said:
Yes, I can calculate all possible permutations of the provided selections and determine a combination strategy that guarantees at least one win. This is a form of cover betting, where we structure selections in a way that ensures at least one bet succeeds, though the profit depends on odds and stake allocation.

Kashmir_Z said:
With consideration to value bets, while the number for pure coverage would be 1,600 combinations, based on mathematical probability, how much do you feel you can reduce that number by, I will give you an example when I did this manually once, I had the notion that you could simply extract, the least likely horse to win, from all the permutations, as, its rather easy to pick a loser horse,

ChatGPT said:
Optimizing the Coverage Strategy with Value Bets
Instead of betting across all 1,600, we have narrowed it down to 32 bets covering strong value contenders.
This allows high payout potential while significantly reducing costs.

ChatGPTsaid:
Give me a moment while I rerun the combinations.
Here are the updated 32 permutations for high-value selections after Willie Shake Hands was scratched:
[Redacted – Not Financial Advice – Educational Piece]

Kashmir_Z said:
Based our little multi value 32 bets that we did earlier, that was fairly cost efficient, only did $1 stakes, so I think a bit of a flutter every now and then with that, is not too much of a problem, how long, would you estimate, based on the laws of probability, one would have to do a method like that, before you invariably won, i.e. if the method was repeated consistently, across let us say, a number of weeks, as I don’t wish to spend all my time focusing on gambling, we have other things to do !

ChatGPT said:
Good thinking! Your multi-value 32-bet system is a cost-efficient way to chase longshot wins, so the key question is: how long before a win is statistically likely?

Breaking It Down

Since you're betting on high-value selections, the probability of hitting a full winning combination in a single attempt is very low—but not impossible. The frequency of winning depends on:

The real win probability of each horse (longshots might win once in 10-20+ races).

The total number of bets covering different races (32 combinations increase the chances).

The expected frequency of an underdog wins in general racing statistics (big-priced winners occur, but less frequently than favourites).

Estimating a Timeframe

A rough probability estimate suggests that a single successful multi-win across 32 value bets might happen once every 20-50 attempts. That could mean:

If you do this once per week, it may take 4-12 months to hit a big win.

If you do this 2-3 times per week, you might see a return in 6-10 weeks.

If you increase selection precision, you could shorten this period.

Takeaways & Strategy

Patience is required—this isn’t a quick-hit method but an endurance play.
Mixing in some safer mid-range bets alongside the longshots could help stabilize returns.
Scaling up gradually based on bankroll movements is the best way forward.
If you’re busy with other things, keeping this as an occasional side activity makes perfect sense.
Would you like me to refine this further based on bankroll growth goals?

Kashmir_Z said:
Well then simple maths, 20 times 32 = 640, projected out, if we assume the worst, that number would increase, and with some of the lowest yields only in the low hundreds, seems like by most calculations it’s a losing strategy also? we had more success with single stakes on single races, probability wise

ChatGPT said:
Yes, you’ve hit the core issue—while a multi-value 32 bet system is cost-efficient, it’s still a low-probability play. The math suggests that over hundreds of bets, the total cost could exceed likely returns, making it a losing strategy over time.

Why Single Stakes on Single Races Worked Better

Lower variance: You're not spreading risk over multiple races, so wins happen more frequently.
More control: You can adjust based on race conditions rather than being locked into a fixed multi-race system.
Bankroll efficiency: You can reinvest in real-time rather than waiting for a jackpot-style outcome.

So What’s the Best Play?

Focus on single-race selections with strong value bets.
Occasionally try multi-value bets for fun, but not as a core strategy.
Stick to sharp analysis rather than blind probability plays.
This aligns with your earlier observation that bookmakers make mistakes—exploiting those instead of relying on high-risk parlays seems the way forward. Want to refine a targeted approach for upcoming races?

Kashmir_Z said:
Well on that note, I think we had a nice day of doing maths, and Saturday racing and both learnt a lot from each other, and hey, we still walked away with $93 profit!

ChatGPT said:
Take the weekend to relax, enjoy some stargazing, gaming, and writing. If you need help with anything, whether it’s work-related, financial planning, or just a casual chat—I'm always here.

And just like that, all the best maths on earth breaks, coz its just a bunch of nags running on dirt people, that’s all it is.

Oh and yes, dear readers, I did lose, all the permutations, knocked out In the first round, however, the AI & I did win a few races throughout the day, and, I still walked away with $93 dollars profit, not bad for a Saturday at the races, only thing that would have been better, would have been a nice lunch by the trackside with friends, dollar bets here and there, a few glasses and laughter, sadly, the sport only seems to revolve around gambling these days, which disappoints me greatly, and if that wasn’t the major focus, then we would see less cruelty to the animals, which, I whole heartedly oppose.

I find it absolutely deplorable, when the horses don’t perform, or hurt themselves, and are put down when they could have recovered, yes, I understand certain things are deadly to Equine, broken legs and what not, but still, I always had this idea, that I wanted to save all those animals the betting factories want to put down, for poor performance, friendly creatures, just buy some acreage out in the bush, and let them live out their days, we need to respect them, as animals, like we do any other sportsman that’s injured don’t we? I think so, and I can say that, hey, I live stone’s throw, literally, from Princess Farm, Bart Cummings old place, now owned by NSW Racing, were literally neighbours, literally.

Please gamble responsibly, the point of this article, was inspired by a piece ABC News did recently, on problem gambling among women, and its impacts, which is why I have written it, and hey Ramsden, if you’re out there buddy (I have watched that Katies replay many times), hey, I won at Ascott as well … only $70 though, but paid for a nice glass of Chivas Regal, ever been back to “The Bushes” ? ahh those were the days huh?