A thought experiment. Will Birmingham explode in some way post May 7th?

On the 7th of May of this year the entire cohort of councillors in Birmingham will be up for election. Unlike some councils, this year’s election will not be one where only a third of councilors will face an election but the entire council. This raises the possibility that whatever group ends up running Birmingham might be of a very different complexion politically than what has gone before.

Currently Birmingham is run by the Labour Party but Labour is being challenged not just by the Tories and the Liberal Democrats but also by a lot of independent candidates, some of whom may be of a sectarian religious nature and the Greens, a party that is now almost totally hollowed out by Islamic interests. Reform are also standing in many of the seats, but due to the demographics of modern Birmingham, I don’t see them performing that well outside of the nicer bits of Birmingham and even then they will face heavy challenge from the Greens and the Lib Dems, with the Lib Dems being especially good at attracting votes from those who don’t take much interest in politics.

Birmingham is a place that is in a lot of trouble financially. The Labour administration has made a number of errors, including equal pay costs and implementing an IT system which failed. Because of Birmingham’s fiscal problems, the council has been under central government financial oversight since 2023. The current council also failed to pass a balanced budget in February of this year although it managed that in March.

Birmingham is politically fragile and although some form of mainstream political governance might emerge following the May elections, which might repair the city’s financial foundations and run the city for the benefit of all its inhabitants, there’s also the possibility that this might not happen. Instead of getting an administration that is Labour or Lib Dem but with some Tory representation, Birmingham might end up with a whole bunch of Green or Islamist nutcases running the show.

This, in my view, would be a worst case scenario but it’s one that might happen if the elections in Birmingham end up having a very low turnout, something that is often a curse in local elections.

If the Greens and the Islamist independents do well, then what might happen to Birmingham? It’s quite possible that things could go downhill very very quickly if the Islamists, whether the openly declared ones or the Trojan Horse Green ones take control. Finances that have only just been sorted out might go out of control again and public services might be skewed towards the needs of ‘the cousins’ and their interests. West Midlands Police would continue to descend into even more Islamopandering and life for those opposed to Islamism might get worse and worse. A brief look at London Boroughs where this has already happened, such as in Tower Hamlets and Newham, would give you some idea of what might happen to Birmingham but on a much larger scale. In Tower Hamlets the majority of the council is Bangladeshi even though the population of Bangladeshis is only 32%. In Newham the Labour Party acts as if it was Labour party in name only when in reality it runs the borough primarily in the interests of the borough’s Muslims resulting in White Britons fleeing the area to such an extent that there are now only 15% of the Borough’s residents who can be described as White Britons.

If these Trojan Horse Greens and the openly declared Islamists take control of Birmingham and manage to do so on a very low turnout, then there will be whole swathes of the population there, such as White Brummies, who might be Christians or Jews or religiously agnostic, who will in effect have no political representation. I can see a situation where an administration in the city made up of Islamist and Islamist aligned councillors makes life worse for those not in favour of these groups and that might increase tensions. It might increase tensions to such an extent that street violence breaks out and this street violence might infect other places near to Birmingham.

I’m not saying that this sort of political based street violence will happen, only that an Islamist / Green council elected on a low turnout might create the conditions for such violence to occur. Handing the council to ‘Gaza independents’ or the Greens, or others who don’t have the concerns of the majority of Birmingham residents at heart, might create and exacerbate religious, cultural and racial differences that already exist.

There might be a way to avoid a worst case scenario but it will need to be based on a greater turnout at the polls. If more ‘normal’ people vote and vote for those councillors who they see as a best fit to guide the city out of its current problems and who will represent everyone in their ward or in the city, then it might dilute the nutter vote that might propel a majority of Islamist aligned or Green candidates into power. If the ‘Apathy Party’ wins, as it does too often in local contests, Birmingham could end up in a very bad place indeed.