It could now be a case of ‘when’ Starmer goes rather than ‘if’ he does.

I’ve seen plenty of dead but still operating Zombie governments in the UK. These are governments that are at the end of their term and have become mired in failure, scandal or political division or which have just run out of the sort of ideas that could enthuse the public. Two good examples are the last Thatcher government and the government of John Major. The Thatcher final term wasn’t dynamic it was in internal turmoil and tired with much of the country seemingly tired of how the party was led. The Major government was engulfed by economic problems and sleaze and by 1997 they were seen by many of us as useless, divided, bent and sleazy. The Major government was, after 18 years of Conservative Party rule, not looking at its best.

It is to be expected that leaders or parties that have been in government for two terms or more will eventually succumb to internal division, earlier bad decisions in government catching up with them, public dissatisfaction and scandals both large and small. After a long time in power governments can get lazy or arrogant or forget that they need to serve the majority of voters and if possible make their lives better along with improving the country as a whole. This makes voters want a different government in the hope that things will get better and to punish those in the current government who they believe have failed to govern properly.

As I said, this is the sort of phenomenon that occurs in British politics after a party has been in power for two or more terms. This tiredness and sleaze should not be such a big problem for a government that has only been in power for less than two years. However for the Labour Government of Sir Keir Starmer this tiredness about this government, public dissatisfaction with policies and massive amounts of attention being paid to some of the worst sleaze since the Profumo Affair has set in remarkably early.

The constant unveiling of bad or damaging policies by Labour has already annoyed many different sections of the public. Labour’s ‘refugee’ and migration policies have royally pissed of a lot of Britain’s working and lower middle class population and that dissatisfaction with this aspect of policy has now become a major feature in working class politics. Punitive taxation and attacks on educational alternatives have hurt middle class workers and those who are asset rich but cash poor such as small family farmers. Slavish adherence to Green policies by ministers such as Ed Miliband has pushed up energy costs for both domestic consumers and industry. Britain’s energy affordability crisis is also hastening the de-industrialisation that is hurting Britain’s working classes in particular.

To borrow a phrase from Monty Python’s ‘Parrot Sketch’ Starmer’s government is looking rather too much like a soon to be ‘ex-government’. It’s got many of the features that characterised the tail end of the Thatcher administration and the end of the Major one. It’s got the political divisions that have so far been contained by Starmer probably by threats or promises of advancement to some backbenchers, but which might break out badly in public soon. It’s also got the unpopular policies. Thatcher’s government was badly wounded by the Poll Tax affair and it’s looking as if Labour’s migration, taxation and energy policies are going to wound Labour in a similar way. The sleaze is clearly there with Labour and that sleaze is not just the Mandleson Affair, it‘s also the whiff of sleaze about some of Labour’s funders and those who have funded individual senior Labour figures. Labour’s sleaze level could be far higher and more damaging to the nation than either the 1990’s ‘Cash For Questions’ scandal where MP’s took money from then Harrods owner Mohammed Al Fayed for asking questions in Parliament or the various sex scandals that the Major government was known for. The sex and bribery scandals that afflicted the Major government created a viewpoint among some of the public that all the politicians were bent or shagging around and contributed to the public choosing New Labour in 1997 because they were fed up with the Tories failure and sleaze. The Mandleson Affair and the suspicion by some among the public that Mandleson might not have been alone in Labour that was leaking secret or at the very least highly restricted and politically sensitive information to dubious chums for who knows what reward, might also be a factor in public disgust at the Labour Party?

As with the end of the last Thatcher administration and the end of the Major one, it is the party leader and Prime Minister who is taking the flak for the sleaze. Thatcher took it for economic and party division problems amongst other issues and Major took it for the sleaze and economic failure. The leader became synonymous with the political, social and economic problems of the country. The Tories were in 1990 able to replace Thatcher with Major who was at the time a less than well known Tory figure and give him two years to make himself and the party look better than Labour under Kinnock did. Major achieved this and won the 1992 General Election.

Labour leaders rarely get replaced whilst in Government due to challenges to the leadership although both Wilson and Blair voluntarily stepped down from the positions of Labour leader and PM whilst in government. Labour leaders who are in government most often lose General Elections and then get replaced but Labour’s level of public trust is so low and dissatisfaction with the party so high, that there could be a first time for an in government challenge to the Labour leader. However, as is more likely, Starmer could become so tainted with the now obvious bad decisions regarding the economy, society, national security as well as the sleaze because of Mandleson and much else, that he resigns and a leadership election is called with David Lammy as caretaker Prime Minister and Labour leader.

This might be the most likely scenario in my view. He might not go after the Gorton and Denton by-election, which Labour is expected to lose to either the Greens or Reform, but if Labour get a hammering in the local elections in May then that might be the time when those around Starmer finally convince him to step down. The most likely challenger in my view is Angela Rayner. She’s already allegedly organised a leadership campaign war chest and gathered trusted people around here. Of course her tax affairs are going to be an issue, but Labour members might hold the view that Rayner’s tax affair issues are an order of magnitude or more less serious than some of the dirt that has stuck to Starmer.

Starmer is wounded, so wounded in fact that there are already leaks of criticisms of Starmer from suddenly morally emboldened Labour MP’s and even some in the mainstream commentariat are turning against Starmer. We are now in a situation where people are asking the question ‘when’ Starmer will go rather than asking ‘if’ Starmer will go. But changing leaders might not remove the damage that has occurred to the party during Starmer’s time in office. The problem for Labour is similar to the problem faced by the Major government in its final years and that is the problems with sleaze and bad counterproductive policies are now not seen as merely the problems of the leadership but the entire party itself.