RE: Diesel to the fire / Diesel al fuego [ENG/ESP]
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Interesting article - somehow I had not read it until today.
I sort of thought the "terrorist" term was just a bit of rhetoric...I did not know people were actually being charged with that as a crime. Depending on exactly what the evidence is - and what the laws are - that could be interesting. There is no doubt in my mind that some of the things the "protesters" do during a Paro are intended to scare people. But calling people terrorists at a press conference is different than charging them with that crime in court. I assume the jail sentence would be a very long time if convicted.
You are for sure correct in your analysis that Noboa seeks much more power in his presidency than he currently has. And of course the outcome of today's election will tell a lot about that comes out. We shall soon see there.
I do not agree with you about exactly what Noboa's plan was. For sure he expected a Paro after removing the subsidy as he did. I don't think he wanted a real confrontation, but if the protesters never leave and he is not going to negotiate there isn't much else left that is possible.
In answer to the question - "Why did he do it so suddenly?" I asked the same question at a beer drinking session on a Sunday afternoon. The answer I got from a friend - which I think is very good - is that if he had done it 10 cents at a time he would have gotten 10 Paro's. I believe the Paro of 2022 (my first in person) resulted in a ten or fifteen cent change in the price of gas. This way he just got it all over in one go.
But I also think his goal was to completely eliminate the concept of Paro from the indigenous playbook. Certainly everything he did during the Paro - in terms of refusal to negotiate - and willingness in the end to use brute force makes sense if that was his goal. In this I happen to agree with him. Not much of anything good has happened to anybody as a result of executing a Paro.
Yet - it seems at least possible there will be another one soon. For example - an airbnb guest coming to our place in January - just asked us if he can cancel the reservation if a Paro happens after New Years. So this rumor is very much out there.
The rumors are always out there and will always be. That was after each paro.
Here's an article that shows how Noboa did it with the Gasoline, and why it worked so well - they actually calculated the amount of compensation that each Taxi etc. would get, to support the semi-public transport system.
https://gk.city/2024/06/12/eliminacion-subsidios-combustibles-explicada/
Here's a history of fuel subsidies:
https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/politica/eliminacion-subsidio-combustibles-gobiernos-presidentes-protestas/
And for his plans - I'm sure he didn't want death and many hurt, but he was absolutely willing to pay that price. The information war was what he won, and what interested him. I'm quite sure that each confrontation was very well planned, especially the ones where he got pictures. Rolling into Otavalo, saying he'll kick the indigenous out of the country, sending the first "humanitarian" convoy with lots of military (when Efraín was killed), doing the stunt with the second convoy with even more military and Italian embassy members to Ibarra - all that was well planned ahead, I'm very sure.
Only the last one, there you might be right - he thought they'd go home after a while. He left Imbabura for dead until it wasn't possible anymore, and then went all in once more.
But knowing? No way to know... I always hope for the best, and it would be awesome if you were right and he did not want that. But my gut tells me he just plays it as a game, he doesn't really have any feelings about it nor any connection to how non-rich people live in reality, not even taking about the poor and poorest.