RE: Diesel to the fire / Diesel al fuego [ENG/ESP]
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Sorry - forgot to add this comment. You say this: "Starting 2020, over a span of 17 months, the price of Gasoline was gradually adapted to the world market price, ending with a decree by Noboa himself in 2024 ending the subsidy complete with another 10% bump in price. That worked."
This does not jive with my memory of my living here from August 2021 to present. There was a Paro of about 15 or 16 days I think in 2022 where the primary dispute was the price of gasoline. As part of the settlement the agreement was to raise it by either 10 cents or 15 cents (I cannot seem to find information I trust on this). That Paro was more nationwide than the one we just had - and cost the Ecuador economy can only be estimated.
If I'm not mistaken, it was still a rise in 2022. In the other comment I left a few links to review. I didn't really get it 100% either, what was first, and what second, and what in the middle - but I hope that those errors in details do not defeat the argument :-D The price hikes were gradually in the end, if I understand correctly.
It was a rise in 2022 - and it was not a peaceful one as we both know. Lasso wanted gas price raised to $2.55 and diesel at $1.90. After all the losses and nationwide protests the prices agreed to was $2.40 and $1.80. A lot of fighting nationwide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ecuadorian_protests) and incredible cost to Ecuador economy for 15 cents of gas and 10 cents of diesel.
Your article about the decree of 2024 is also an example of a gradual change that was able to work - but that was just for the last 10% bump.
The assertion of your post is that it is possible to make large changes to the subsidized price gradually and peacefully over time. I don't think the complete history from 2020 to present bears out that assertion. I do agree with you that Noboa would have been better off using the 2024 gradual approach you site...but it is also possible that financial obligations with the IMF just did not make that feasible. And - as we both suspect - Noboa may have also actually wanted this confrontation.
Either way - I think we both agree that fundamentally the subsidy is not good policy. I sincerely hope the indigenous leaders will refocus their efforts towards government implementing policies that more directly benefit them.
Finally - I know you have your deep suspicions on Noboa. And I do not defend him. But I also have very deep suspicions of the indigenous leadership. And it starts from the first time (in 2022) I saw these reports of Leonidas Iza confusing the price of gas in Europe (in Euro / liter) with the price of gas in dollar / gallon. Iza is an educated man who I do not believe could possibly make a error like this unintentionally.
Iza confuses units of gasoline prices
Here is what I found using an AI search to help:
Price Adjustments and Protests in 2022
Oct 2021 Extra/Ecopaís $2.55 (fixed) Diésel $1.90 (fixed)
President Lasso froze prices after previous incremental hikes, setting off initial protests. Price freeze implemented.
June 2022 All (See above)
Protests intensified, demanding a significant reduction in prices to $2.10 for gasoline and $1.50 for Diésel.
June 27, 2022 Extra/Ecopaís $2.45
President Lasso announced a 10-cent cut in response to the pressure of the protests.
June 27, 2022 Diésel $1.80
A 10-cent cut was also applied to Diésel.
June 30, 2022 Extra/Ecopaís $2.40
A final agreement with Indigenous leaders (CONAIE) led to an additional 5-cent reduction, settling the price at $2.40 per gallon.
But that's exactly the point. The paro was always invoked each time after significant price hikes, not gradual ones. In 2018, Moreno did a 40% hike for only gasoline - nothing happened. 2019, he tried to raise gasoline another 30%, and Diesel 130% - Paro.
Between 2020 and 2022, there were many hikes in price/liter, as you can see here:
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Ecuador/gasoline_prices/
Again, the strikes come after a rather quick surge in price, though over a period of time.
This time, it was the same - raising the diesel price (which is even more important than gasoline due to goods transport) by over 90% within a week? With all the history, that was premeditated to cause the trouble.
And no, the leadership of the protesters was as bad as it could be, in my view. Gladly jumping heads first into every trap set for them, without consideration. But that's the worrisome part, isn't it? The horrible state of "leadership", not only in Ecuador, but in the world.
Yep - I get it now. You are correct - that's a very nice graph!
The other point to keep in mind is that after both large increases the resulting Paros were not an effective response. In 2022 only fifteen cents on gas and ten cents on diesel were reclaimed. And in 2025 (where only the diesel was affected) the Paro was not able to reclaim a single penny.
Good riddance to the gas and diesel subsidies of Ecuador!
I really do hope that sometime before the end of the year Mr. Noboa can offer up some program that clearly helps the indigenous people. Perhaps some sort of farm equipment zero interest loan program, or farming irrigation system improvements or something like that.
The referendum questions yesterday went against Noboa - which I know you were happy to see and so was I. (but of course I still cannot vote). Perhaps this will inspire him to consider some measures like this.