On the Hidden Reasons for the Attack on Iran

about 4 hours ago

Trump's words "Iran should never have nuclear weapons" — this is all just for the public and TV, but not the true reason.

Iran's Importance to China

About 20% of global oil supplies and a significant portion of LNG pass through the Strait of Hormuz. China is the world's largest oil importer and essentially the exclusive buyer for Tehran (taking more than 80–90% of Iran's oil exports). Iranian oil accounts for roughly 14% of China's total seaborne oil imports (every seventh liter of gasoline in the country). Any blockade of the strait could drive prices up to $140–150 per barrel, which would severely hit China's economy. In the U.S.-China confrontation, controlling Iran's oil is critically important for the United States.
The New Silk Road (Land Corridor): After the start of the conflict in Ukraine and the effective blockade of the northern route (through Russia to Europe), Iran has become an irreplaceable hub for the southern land corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It connects China through Central Asia to Turkey and onward to Europe. A conflict in Iran would physically destroy this logistics chain.
In 2021, Beijing and Tehran signed a $400 billion agreement. This involves investments in ports, railways, and 5G. Losing Iran would mean China losing its main foothold in the Middle East.

Iran's Importance to Russia

For Moscow, Iran has become a "window to the world" since 2022, allowing it to bypass Western sanctions and the blockade of Baltic and Black Sea ports.
The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This multimodal route (7,200 km) runs from St. Petersburg to the port of Mumbai (India) via the Caspian Sea and Iran's Bandar Abbas port.
It is 40% shorter and 30% cheaper than the route through the Suez Canal.
Right now (February 2026), Russia and Iran are finalizing the Resht–Astara railway project (the last "missing link" in the corridor), with construction set to begin in April 2026. A strike on Iran would put an end to this logistical independence for Russia.
Iran is a key supplier of technologies (drones, missile components) that Russia has integrated into its defense production cycle. Eliminating Iran would weaken Russia's military potential right here and now.

For the United States, Afghanistan and Pakistan are not just unstable regions — they form a "geopolitical wall" separating China from Iran's resources and the Persian Gulf. China dreamed of running railways and pipelines from Iran through Afghanistan, but with the Taliban in power and radical groups (like ISIS-K) roaming the borders, this remains impossible.

The conflict in Ukraine has blocked trade routes through Russia. A war with Iran would create a vertical fracture across Eurasia — the realization of the U.S. "Anaconda 2.0" strategy.

Greenland = control over the Northern route.

All countries understand this, which is why the concept of a Multipolar World is being created. Trump's tariffs are a way to test the waters: who is an ally and who is already on the other side, willing to risk their economy = their current regime in power. After these long negotiations under the framework of Trump's tariffs, the U.S. now knows who will fully join the blockade of China after its attack on Taiwan. This is also preparation for future events, as the tariffs were meant to make supplies from China less profitable, so that businesses in the U.S. could adapt in advance and find workarounds as much as possible. In this way, the U.S. tested its real dependence on China.

For the United States, it is vital that the operation in Iran does not turn into "another Ukraine" or "a second Vietnam." Washington's strategy is built on shock and awe: paralyze the country's governance in 7–14 days, destroy air defenses, and provoke an internal explosion. The main goal is to force the IRGC to capitulate or get bogged down in civil confrontation, where the U.S. would remotely support loyal groups while minimizing its own losses.

If central authority falls, Iran risks turning into a gigantic "all against all" battlefield. We would see the classic pattern of Libya or Syria, but on the scale of a superpower:

The U.S. would finance and arm secular or Kurdish formations.
China (and possibly Russia) would be forced to support the remnants of the IRGC or pro-Chinese factions to protect their oil fields and unfinished Silk Road infrastructure.

But it seems the beginning is not going according to the U.S. plan...