The Latin American Report # 534

Around 150 earthquakes and aftershocks that have shaken Guatemala since yesterday, Tuesday, have claimed the lives of three people so far. The departments of Sacatepéquez—where the epicenter was reported—Escuintla, and Guatemala were the most affected, according to statements by President Bernardo Arévalo. The latest reported victim is a woman who was buried by debris. The other victims, both men, were hit by falling rocks while traveling in a truck headed to the battered Escuintla. The magnitude of this event has nothing to do with the tragedy that occurred last week in Texas, where the issue is no longer just the sad fate of those already confirmed dead or those still missing, but also the mental health of the first responders (in New Mexico, two children, aged 4 and 7, respectively, died due to another severe flood, authorities reported today).

_Source

Brazil

Knowing full well that his words move markets and sow unease among those he targets, Donald Trump enjoys playing with that power. The power to—allegedly—decide whether Iran’s supreme leader lives or dies, or to determine whether stock indices close in the green or red. The Republican leader knows exactly what decision he will make regarding tariffs to be applied on trade with Brazil, but he prefers to say that we must wait until later in the day or tomorrow. The MAGA version of Washington’s foreign policy is simple: friendly actors, those who bend, or those who somehow serve U.S. interests will either fare well or at least not have it so bad; those who misbehave, plain and simple, will have a (very) hard time. Brazil could fall into this group, as the Trump administration seems determined to make an example of it. For Lula—not as in control of the Planalto Palace as in his first presidential term—it is ultimately in his best interest to handle the issue with extreme caution.

To understand how difficult Lula's domestic political management is, this Wednesday the Foreign Relations Committee of the Chamber of Deputies—dominated by the coalition aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro—approved a motion to condemn his visit to former Argentine President Cristina Fernández. Additionally, the congressional committee is demanding that the head of Itamaraty, Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, appear at a parliamentary hearing to explain the Planalto Palace's position on the entire matter. "Amid an official Mercosur agenda, President Lula chose to use his time to visit a former president convicted of corruption and currently under house arrest," stated one of the motion's authors, who also took another jab related to granting asylum to Peru's former First Lady Nadine Heredia, convicted of corruption. The latter is a particularly thorny and alarming issue, as major regional leaders are often shielded by allied leaders when they face disgrace due to corruption—a privilege not available to ordinary citizens who never held such political responsibility.

Returning to the U.S.-Brazil relationship, The White House has not overlooked his prominent role in BRICS and is interpreting the judicial proceedings against Bolsonaro—a close friend to the American mogul—as a case of lawfare. "Brazil, as an example, has not been good to us, not good at all," Trump declared this Wednesday. "We're going to be releasing a Brazil number, I think, later on this afternoon or tomorrow morning." Meanhile, this Wednesday Lula hosted Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Brasília to strengthen trade ties between the two countries, which last year amounted to a significant $6.3 billion, with a surplus for the South American giant.

After publishing this report, the following news related to the Trump-Lula saga emerged. It will be interesting to see how Brasilia reacts:

_Source