Caribbean panorama: Turbulence in sight
The past week has been particularly intense for the Caribbean, with a combination of humanitarian crises, political tensions within regional organizations, and divergent economic forecasts painting a picture of stark contrasts.
Haiti: A Humanitarian Crisis Demanding Global Attention
Haiti remains the epicenter of the region’s most severe humanitarian crisis. Gang violence and forced displacement continue to escalate. According to data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), as of April 17, nearly 13,573 people had been displaced in the Artibonite department alone. This crisis has led to more than half of Haiti’s population facing acute food insecurity. In response to the critical security situation, Chad announced the deployment of 1,500 troops as part of the UN’s Gang Suppression Force (GSF). Simultaneously, the UN allocated $140.5 million in emergency funds to provide vital assistance to at least one million Haitians.
Dominican Republic: Between Migration Management and the Onslaught of Climate
It is a fact that the Dominican Republic has reinforced its migration policy. The General Directorate of Migration (DGM) reported the detention of 2,849 people and the deportation of 2,688 over a single weekend, as part of massive interdiction operations throughout the country. On another front, severe weather conditions since April 7 have caused havoc, leaving 12 people dead and more than 44,000 displaced or affected by widespread flooding.
Cuba: Dialogue Amid an Energy Crisis
Cuba faces a complex scenario marked by a profound general crisis resulting from the mismanagement and embezzlement by the political oligarchy. In this context, the United States oil embargo has added pressure to the communist regime.
Furthermore, Cuban government officials confirmed the holding of diplomatic talks with U.S. officials in Havana. The first of their kind since 2016.
Meanwhile, the situation on the ground is deteriorating: power outages are lasting up to 22 hours a day in some regions, affecting some 9 million people and causing a 56% drop in international tourist arrivals in February. And the crackdown on dissenting voices on the island is intensifying.
Turbulence in CARICOM
The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) is experiencing an internal political storm. The controversy surrounding the re-election of its Secretary-General, Dr. Carla Barnett, has intensified it. Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness has joined the voices calling for a new review of the process, a position that supports the objections initially raised by Trinidad and Tobago. This governance crisis exposes fissures within the regional body at a crucial geopolitical moment.
Economy: An Uneven Growth Outlook
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a mixed economic outlook, with projected regional growth of 5.7% in 2026, but with a marked gap between tourism-dependent countries (0.9%) and commodity exporters (7.9%). It is noted that the conflict in the Middle East will have negative impacts, putting pressure on inflation throughout the region and hitting already indebted tourism-dependent economies particularly hard. On the other hand, an OECD report highlights the need to boost strategic investment to close infrastructure gaps and build resilience to climate change.
Other Signs on the Horizon
The US military campaign in the Caribbean continued with another attack on a suspected drug-trafficking boat, which left three dead, adding to nearly 60 similar incursions. In Dominica, the citizenship by investment of the son of an Iranian political advisor was revoked, amid international scrutiny of these programs. Finally, in the tourism sector, Jamaica is showing signs of a solid recovery after the hurricanes, with more than one million visitors in the first quarter, although the United States issued travel warnings for several destinations in the region due to security risks.
Final Thoughts
Besides the apparent peace of the area the Caribbean is suffering turbulent winds. It's worth to look closer.